The Dominica Labour Party (DLP) will retain power if an election is called, a national poll by Alex Bruno shows.
The poll also shows that the opposition United Workers Party (UWP) is gathering support.
The results of the poll were released on Monday morning.
The poll was based on the question: Which Political Party will win Dominica’s next General Parliamentary Elections? Efforts were concentrated on 13 out of 21 constituencies.
Bruno stated that he has 95 percent confidence, that 58% of the sample agree the Dominica Labour Party will win (+/- 3.91) the next Dominica General Elections.
“Respondents were of the opinion that the D.L.P will retain eleven (11) seats; the Vielle Case, Portsmouth, Cottage, Grand Bay, Paix Bouche, Colihaut, Salybia, La Plaine, Soufriere, CastleBruce and Mahaut constituencies. The Petite Savanne constituency is a contingency seat which could also be called for the D.L.P, based on polling data – albeit inconclusive,” the results of the poll show.
The poll also stated that “It was also the opinion of the respondents that the United Workers Party (U.W.P) will hold on to its six (6) currently held seats: Marigot, Salisbury, Wesley, Roseau Central, Roseau North and Roseau South, while becoming more competitive in Morne Jaune which this poll declares as a toss-up seat. The U.W.P could grab the Morne Jaune seat within the margin of error if the majority of the undecided vote goes U.W.P’s way. The U.W.P also polled competitively in the St. Joseph and Roseau Valley constituencies. St.Joseph was found to be the constituency with the highest level of undecided voters/respondents in each of the seven polling categories and may very well swing either way. St. Joseph is certainly the seat which seems most vulnerable.”
“So, if the poll results hold, the D.L.P shall win the next general election (should it be held today) with a reduced mandate of twelve (12) seats, while U.W.P can possibly take nine (9) seats,” the result shows. “However, the latter will require a herculean task which is somewhat impeded by the incoherent messaging of the opposition party, and compounded by the public legal distraction of its leader, Mr. Lennox Linton.”
Bruno holds a Master’s Degree in political science and is currently pursuing his Ph.D in that field.
The full results of the poll are published below.
I’m sorry but if I recall correctly, last elections there was a power struggle. This time around I am appealing to the young and unemployed for instance to think long and hard. Make the right choice. Yes, hand outs are good, but only for a time. After a time one has to get up and try to get somewhere with the means that he or she has. Also, let’s be realistic, and speaking from experience, a number of young Dominicans are leaving to seek employment elsewhere. Young people. Obviously, if their skills and abilities were catered to , there would remain to contribute to the country’s development. Everyone is not academically inclined. I believe there should be a mix in terms of highly skilled to not so skilled individuals, in essence there should be structures in place to accommodate everyone.
I don’t want to compare Dominica to the other Caribbean islands, but if one does a little investigation , one may find that even an individual with a meagre sills and education is able to obtain employment in some of the other islands. I am not saying that we should settle for the mediocre. I am saying that we should try to ensure that our systems accommodate all our people. At the end of the day, when Dominicans go about developing other countries, those here will inevitably be left with the choice of becoming the products of the society. Again, I say, young people, look deep within yourselves. Make the right choice. Look at the facts! Sift through the information that is given to you from both sides. Help Dominica and get on it’s feet. Peace.
Finally! The only one person who is disappointed at the poll result is a gentleman named “Skerrit”. He has held the hardest job in the world for the past sixteen years and he deserved a break. His next job is to win the next election and hand over the helm to Francine Baron. As for Laplaine,the old mill and SISARI NEED A GOOD CLEANED UP. Castle Bruce, different bodies with one brain with the same blood group, dead or alive those two coming to labour. We never had it so good, enjoy with Labour
Alex, I’ve got only one question to ask you. “How valid is your poll when there will be at least three (3) political parties, not two (2), at the next general elections?”
Though I support your work as an aspiring intellect, I totally disagree with your manipulation of our functioning political parties to two parties instead of three.
What I would like is a poll including the three functioning political parties(though there are supposely more in the cobweb). Let your questions include DLP, UWP, and DFP.
Then I can say yes, my friend Alex is doing an unbias job.
Good work uncle Pawol.
Calling a person a liar is an insult and intimidation,swear at others,calling them false name,all these anger people and lead to crime.we must maintain manners and respect for each other in order to reduce crime
20 labour 1 independent next election results tell Bruno Linton and Co to go to Sudan and join Fontaine
Having schemed through the report presented by Alex Bruno, I would like to give Alex Bruno some credit for his efforts. I believe with time and experience he could become a good pollster.
His attempt at objective analysis was interesting and reflective of political polling nd the trends reflects the cycle political parties go through election cycles. Both the governing DLP and opposition UWP can use this to their advantage. The political party which best uses the information presented to strategize for the next election could turn out victorious. There is no room for another political party in an election race, and these parties should join with either the DLP or UWP if an election was called tomorrow.
With so much baggage being carried by both major political parties it is unlikely that a clear winner is identifiable until after the ballots are counted… But the call for clean and purified Electoral Reform is clearly something that should not be under emphasized…
As someone who has training in social science and statistics at university level, I state that Alex’s conclusion does not follow from the responses to the question he asked. He asked respondents which party they think will win the next general elections not which party they will vote. His conclusion that the DLP will win the general elections would be valid if he had asked the latter question. The DLP may well win but Alex’s analysis is not internally coherent.
Dominicans really like strive to leave Sherrit in power
Your comments are not destroyed, but fed into a master computer. In all fairness ,A person is putting money into the kitty and another is taking money out of the kitty, which one would you favour. Love is love and life is love.UWP PAY UP BEFORE the Receivers come in.THE PM is very handsome. Don’t you love your children?
As a uwp supporter i would like to adk my party supporters to not undermine the poll but learn from it. Lets not try to listen to the people. We should be acknowldging the areas we fall short and come up with creative ways to sway the opinions of others. Let’s not be overly confident about our chances and neglect to present a clear and powerful message to the electorate. We have lost 4 elections to the DLP let’s not allow ourself to lose a 5th.
I could kiss you. Best comment! But they wont take it hence the loss of 4 elections
UWP should take this poll in good faith….let shows clearly where their weaknesses are. One bright shining star is that in a number of constituencies respondents agree that the UWP message is strongest. This means that contrary to belief, labourites are listening to the message but are accepting the bribes due to their economic situation. UWP needs boots on the ground in these constituencies to do more house to house campaigns.
UWP prefer house to house mepuis to call people hungry and stupid. If you put a real leader you will see how skerrit will go
Alex just want people to know he there stupes poll lol
First time I hear somebody studying overseas and always back in their home country for every action.
@VeeWalsh did the part about he currently studying for a PHD pass you by? Maybe you have no idea what this means?
Boy i must laugh that poll, pa pa met, what a joke. Alex if this is a scientific poll well polling is in trouble in this country. boss man try a next profession
People thats just a poll.Personally i see a result of 10 to 11 for ANY of the two major parties,,UWP OR DLP…. Of the sure seats he gave to DLP,without naming them, i remove 2, and one is a toss up..But there is no doubt that the DLP the most corrupt party in the Commonwealth,,Will have a huge
challenge to continue their corrupt rule.
SKERRIT MUST GO!!
SKERRIT MUST GO!!
SKERRIT MUST GO NOW!!!
@% a huge challenge like how UWP getting a handful from one village in the west to follow them in their protest? Ye that’s huuuge according to Trump
Hahaha….But Skerrit said he will win over all the seats he lost
The PM may be right, DLP will take back their three seats. Bruno stroking the egos of the UWP. He knows better than that. Dominicans may giive UWP just 2 seats in the next election and even that is a toss up if the candidates remain the same, the DLP has a good chance of a clean sweep.
One point that needs to be factored into this poll, is that the Labor Party is already in Campaign mode. They have held some rallys and attempt to hype their base up. With this in mind, some polls will be leaning DLP.
I also believe that this information is very helpful to the UWP. What is interesting to me is, despite some of those polled believe that the UWP has a stronger message, in the same poll they believe that Labor will win.
What does this say? It means they are other factor associated with with the decision a voter makes other than message. I personally believe that one of these factors is bribery, paying them to vote.
When a conscience becomes callous, anything goes.
I made that same observation….It means that the UWP message is loud and clear but people have become so poor under labour that they are forced to accept the bribes…. The challenge is to help these people to see that handout will only keep them in poverty….. This requires a lot ground mobilization and house to house campaigns to show people how their economies situation has worsened under labour. They are just being used to keep labour in power.
XXXXX you point is taken but how will the accept the message when they see the UWP leader as someone who will take take take. See the amount of lawsuits where you think the money will come from if they vote him? Ponder on that!
Alright everybody, the next time we vote, let’s reelect Incompetence, Injustice, Crime. Unemployment, Poverty, Greed, Covetousness, Monfared, Allison Muerke, PLywood, Voter fraud, Victimization and Shamelessness!
that is a pole not a poll
Good work Alex, this poll and analysis coming from a local. But I see many inconsistencies in your data reports and sampling. I also suspect many dishonest responses to the questions posed and they are alarming to say the least.
Of course, you were dealing with many diehards, bigots and polarised respondents who would give the most biased responses, no matter what logic suggests.
You also need to review your history of the longest serving leader. Thus far Eugenia holds that edge (July 1980 to June 1995)-15 years!
This is pretty impressive work by you Mr Bruno. It’s great to see that locals are developing in that field and conducting such important research. I am hoping that this publication will open you up to more visibility locally, regionally and internationally.
I noticed a bit of inconsistency in pg 70, question 4 – the numbers don’t add up and the codes are off. I noticed that in a few instances that the color codes are mixed too. A standard should be set for either red/blue for one party and to keep it consistent across the paper.
All the best Mr. Bruno!! Keep up the good work.
Good job alex… the results seem plausible…. as someome from laplaine i agree that the uwp has lost ground in that constituency… bribery has made a huge impact..
The Kalinago Territory will remain a labour seat because the UWP has abandoned the area apart from two old bald head men that they call “Care takers”.
In addition, the people are the easiest to get their allegiance as long as you can give something for their home and personal use, the dependency syndrome!
The people have to share one pound of back & neck to feed a family of six (Lunch) or eat dry bread and glo sikway but they are the same ones that will chockingly utter, Labour ka twaviay!
The Kalinago Territory is yours if you can give the people there something in their hands. It may be a cruel thing to say but it is true that the mendicant culture is very strong there. Perhaps, it is not surprising given that the Kalinago Territory is the poorest region in Dominica- 70% poverty rate according to the 2009 Poverty Assessment.
Alex I respect your point of view but remember last time a poll carried out by UWP showed the 21 constituencies with only 2 seats going to the DLP in red and all the rest in Blue for UWP and come election day the result was 15 to the DLP and 6 to UWP. So Alex wait come Election day my boy. Labor gonna swipe the POLL again. 18- DLP and 3- UWP.. Sorry to say your POLL is as mad as the one who carried it out.
lie
If we the people of Dominica open over brains and mind properly then uwp will win .. ( It’s clear to see that the last election especially the stjoseph sit was stolen bad ) ##MY PEOPLE LOOK AT THE SOCIETY OF DOMINICA, THE COUNTRY SOLD & THE PEOPLE GETTING BLIND. . LABOUR FULLING THE PEOPLE WITH SHIT. . .. …. NOTHING FOR THE YOUTHS, …OH GOD WATCH OVER MY LAND. IF LABOUR WIN AGAIN I BELIEVE IS WAR.
Look at what UWP is doing. Note the supporters’ protests and bonfires set on the roads and obstructing travelers which by the way also destroy the roads. Note what occurred in Roseau on February 7th. Would you vote for and elect such a dangerous and destructive Party? Woe to those who do.
If we the people of Dominica open over brains and mind properly then uwp will win .. ( It’s clear to see that they stole the last election, and the St Joseph was stolen buy labour big time .. ) ##MY PEOPLE LOOK AT THE SOCIETY OF DOMINICA, THE COUNTRY SOLD & THE PEOPLE GETTING BLIND. . LABOUR FALLING THE PEOPLE WITH SHIT. . .. …. NOTHING FOR THE YOUTHS, …OH GOD WATCH OVER MY LAND …
Now Alex is mad as his report doesn’t favor the UWP? Continue with the head in sand syndrome UWP this is what will keep you in the yard forever.
Alex, I have read your entire report but allow me to say that your analysis does not reflect the figures shown in the poll results. You stated that St Joseph is the most vulnerable seat, meaning that UWP is likely to win that seat or there is a 50/50% chance for each candidate but your hard data results give a different picture. You may wish to enlighten the public further on how your analysis of the results were derived from the data or are they assumptions. In my view, there are many assumptions made hence I recommend a review of this report.
Alex, it looks like Skerrit put you up to that. Did you receive money? If so how much? You tuning on us now.
That kind of poll is unacceptable because only 13 constituencies were polled. 13 out of 21 is a fake poll. The pollster certainly has a personal slant in favour of the UWP. Next election DLP is taking all 21 seats.
The UWP is doing nothing to be recognize as an alternative, nor are any other parties. Remember how they handled Soufriere in the last bi-election. And look at all this mob like behavior trying to turn people into terrorists. UWP actions of obstruction, quitting and demonstration may be fun for now but it will never capture the swing voters. Did you see the Portsmouth rally or the people at the west bridge function or the people at DLP town hall meetings. Don’t you see those as indicators of the real thing.
In analyzing this posting I think it is giving the DLP 19 seats. The eleven and the eight that was not polled. that leaves two seats. I cant see how the UWP can win an election with its strategy of negativity, so I give Labour all 21. Money and action talk a lot, so much more than just talking noise.
Oh you beautiful POLL,I love you so very much, I new it all along and you confirmed it.Blessings to the World
Well, since after Hillary Clinton lost ‘yugely’ I won’t bet my bank account on elections. No sirree bob!
But seriously, what about the silent voters?, the undecided voters? the flip-floppers? There are a lot of persons who will say what they think a pollster wants to hear.
So in the end of the day, if Labour Party is winning by 13 seats, why was the PM trying to pass an unlawful act in parliament??
Did you mean “hugely?”
Polls do not mean much. Furthermore, it is still too early to decide which Party will win. Simply play it by ear. Let the Parties do their campaigning until that day arrives.
To gauge people’s intentions, you have to ask “which political party would you vote for if elections were held today?”
I do believe DLP is likely to win the next election, but that does not mean I would vote fro them. So if I were asked the question asked in the poll, my answer would be DLP. But that does not indicate my voting intention.
If that was the main question, I would say that poll was meaningless.
UWP taking nine seats wi hahaha
We coming back for Roseau South and North, doe fraid!
Them poles phony, we’ll see the day of the election. Doesn’t matter who win wether it’s the Novice or the Liar, the country still DOOMED!
It will be worst under UWP.
Did they think that the poll would say otherwise? L O L
I believe if the elections are conducted like the last general election, then labour will still win , But if it is conducted on a level playing field , Then workers will win convincingly since 2000, Alex , La plane sit was ,and still is workers, Castlebruce, was and still is workers, Roseau valley was and still is workers, Labour didn’t win them, They took then, They also took st joseph seat, The world knows that
Hahaha u got alot of jokes
All truth!
There is no prof of misbehavior . There were observers and every party had their agents on sight. All this fake news and propaganda does not prove anything.
Their biggest THEFT was in the Morne Jaune constituency,with Dr Fontaine.
Mahaut,will also fall to UWP….Mark my words!!! Its going to the tightest general election we have had for years,,as the corrupt cabal is disintegrating..
SKERRIT MUST GO!
SKERRIT MUST GO!!!
SKERRIT MUST GO NOW!
Labour only getting 13 seats??????
the poll said 12. and what’s with the only? Is either you blind or death..or maybe living in Mars and don’t know the situation in Dominica today.
If after spending over $100million labour can only win 12 seats then the party is in bad shape….This poll just shows that UWP is poised to win the next elections. They simply have to do more groundwork in Mahaut, Castle Bruce and La Plaine….No wonder Skerro was so desperate to pass those amendments to the Election Act
While polls indicate a likely outcome, truth is the actual outcome varies wildly from the polling result many times. I would have much rathered if the sample was inclusive of every constituent over the age of 18, rather than only the current registered list of voters.
If that were the case, according to the poll, whereby a DLP election victory is viewed by the citizenry, why was Skerrit so desperate to pass bills to reform the electoral act?
Any true pole would show UWP winning.
A a I never knew Alex had a PhD.
I don’t. Never said that I had a PhD.
Fake news, fake news and fake news.
hoping he chose the people who participated in the pole at random.
So this poll confirms that the DLP have won elections by the use of overseas voters.
I am certainly one of those that will not be voting labour again!!!!
Still gonna win?
If Dominicans like misery I guess
and that is all you concerned about right “a win” for win sake. Results don’t matter. Economic and other results don’t matter…is just “a win” to say “we win”. Allu win and then what? See the state of Dominica.
Roger I bet you have never voted Labour. Pah try sah!!!!!!!!!!!!
the pole looks mad as the person him self. alex is sick this pole is by
Telephone “pole” or electoral “poll”…. Make up you mind before someone give you a lash with a pole! lol
or a pole vault
learn how to spell poll first before insulting someone’s mental state
AWAH ,No wonder your life is stuck in first gear, Because labour hill never ends,
Well as I posted earlier is just wat Alex is doing. This come to no surprise to us anyways. But Alex good try.
Just to inform you bro you and ur polls is not needed because the Dominica Labour Party is not loosing non of the seats we now hold and we are coming for no less dan 1/2 of wat the UWP now hold including three Roseaus Wesley and just wat h Bawi.
But you have just damage the credibility of ur intended profession. You as a political operative of the UWP (which is ur choice anyways) needs to come to grasp with reality.
Dominicans are safe in the hands of PM and NO WAY YOUR POLES IS CORRECT.
But again it’s the thing of UWP and their supporters to mislead and we are surely not surprised by ur so-called bogus poll.
All u trying to do is give a lil courage to ur party buttthey them self know u not making sense.
As I said earlier u will give labour win Cus u can’t fight wit the obvious. And u going to say workers climbing. So said so done. Hahahah. Alex Alex…
Stop attacking the messenger and listen to the message
And it is…?