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Economist, McCarthy Marie, has expressed concern about the steady population decline in Dominica.
Using information provided by the Ministry of Health, Immigration Department and Central Statistics Office, Marie noted a significant decrease in the number of births from 1,501 in 1995 to 796 in 2016.
He attributed this to social issues, including women’s pursuit of higher education, which, in addition to medical advice against pregnancy after the age of forty, hinders procreation.
“Women go to school longer, so they put off having children… So, most women have their first child when they’re about twenty-eight; and since it is not advisable to have children after forty, the amount of time for a woman to have a child safely, is kind of limited,” Marie explained.
Marie is also of the view that there is sufficient circumstantial evidence to formulate a hypothesis that the decline in births is also partly due to significant infertility in the male population, which he believes is mainly caused by a once-popular chemical pesticide used in banana production. According to him, the ministry of health should seriously look into the reproductive capacity of the population with a view to formulating and implementing policies and programmes to reverse the alarming decline in births.
“It would seem reasonable to formulate a hypothesis that many men are infertile… and they would have been made so by a chemical called Dibromochloropropane (DBCP) which was sold in Dominica under the brand name nemagon…” he remarked. “Nemagon is a nematicide that was widely used in banana production. In the 1980s in particular, Dominica had a large amount of bananas planted everywhere… lots of people were banana farmers and/or workers who came into direct contact with the product. Other persons could have come into contact with the chemical from the runoff from banana farms into rivers and streams.”
Meanwhile, Marie pointed out that in most years in the period between 1995 to 2016, out-migration exceeded inward migration with an average net out-migration of 519 persons per year.
“Interestingly, in 2012 and 2014 inward migration exceeded out migration by 142 and 1421 respectively. Generally, the early years during the period had higher rates of out migration than the later years,” he stated. “For example, 1995, 1996 and 1999 had net out migration in excess of 1000 persons. In more recent times, from 2001 to 2016 net out migration has been modest, averaging about 390 per year.”
Marie also noted an increase in deaths in Dominica, from 584 in 1995 to 686 in 2016. This, he credited to an older population, and various non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
In response to the question as to what is to be done, Marie warned that the country will “simply collapse” for lack of people if the trends in births and deaths continue, as Dominica is quite literally dying.
“A robust, targeted immigration programme should be put in place if we are to avoid the fate of Japan” he opined.
In September 2016, Chief Medical Officer, David Johnson, stated that NCDs were the main causes of death in Dominica.
Diabetes and cancer have been said to be the most prevalent NCDs among Dominicans.
Dominica’s population was calculated as 72,712 in 1995 and fell to 71,379 in 2016.
I read your post approximately four times and with each successive reading, I realize just how far back we are as a nation. In Social Studies I learned about “Push and Pull Factors” as it relates to migration. What pull factors do we have presently, to attract the type of population numbers via immigration that you mentioned? The health care system is a colossal failure. The hospital was a total mess prior to Maria, and now it’s even worse. Where will future inhabitants go to for their health care needs? We saw a brand new, nuclear center coming into operation on one of the French Islands. You would think that we would be moving in that direction with the high rates of prostate cancer on the island, but it’s not even a topic of discussion at the moment. What’s sad Mark is that you have played politics for too long with our future.
“It would seem reasonable to formulate a hypothesis that many men are infertile… and they would have been made so by a chemical called Dibromochloropropane (DBCP) which was sold in Dominica under the brand name nemagon…” he remarked. “Nemagon is a nematicide that was widely used in banana production.
What nonsense, what hypothesis is that? Dominica have banana again like before? So how u can you formulate a hypothesis that men are infertile because of banana consumption and we don’t even have a banana industry in this country anymore? Why not formulate a hypothesis that ” there is a reduction in birth rate or procreation because of a worsening economy in this country that force’s people not to give birth” that hypothesis sounds more credible..
Stop blaming banana nonsense you talking…. so much banana my father eat he hasaid so much children…. say it as it is… the Labour party has mashop this country
I think you may have missed Mr Marie’s point. The direct use of the chemical Dibromochloropropane (DBCP) is directly affecting the farmers. Not the Consumption of bananas
Let’s start at the beginning Mr McCarthy Marie, and ask the women of Dominica how many of them look forward to giving birth at the Princess Margaret Hospital, or in Dominica? Maybe you could start this survey by asking our PM wife!?
You also stated that,”Dominica’s population was calculated as 72,712 in 1995 and fell to 71,379 in 2016. Certainly we have the post-Maria population figure, at least an estimate based on those who left since Maria? This figure would be rather insightful, I suspect, and would not support your analysis, so no mention of it. Your economic analysis seems to be one by omission.
Mr.Marie, please just say it as simple as you see it and stop going around the bush with all kinds of hypothesis. People are leaving Dominica because there are NOT ENOUGH JOBS ON THE ISLAND. Whatever jobs there are people get paid minimum wage and and only a few get jobs. People have to go elsewhere to find work.
Mac. A very poor analysis! In my opinion a first year college student would provide a more sensible analysis of the problem. No doubt, the situation of decreasing population and out migration would have its roots in economic and political issues. Minimal incentives for family life. Most young people are eager to leave Dominca because they think that Dominica does not provide the best opportunity for them.
Again, your hypothesis is flawd to suggest that some chemical or pesticides used in the banana industry is affecting fertility. I am not disputing the fact that the pesticides may have been detrimental to farmers health. However the average young man now in is prime, say 20_ 40 years today, born in the mid 80s and early 2000s would have not been exposed to these pesticides for long. The men that would have been exposed to these chemicals are now in their 60s and 70s, and may be more interested in a pension .
An economist not mentioning the stagnating economy as one of the prime reasons for the population decline should tell you all you need to know about the objectivity of this piece. Mark the Dominican population is not declining – it is simply relocating. The Dominican nation is alive and well – just living in economic exile in other lands! Give people hope that they have a future on the island and you will see how quickly our “population” problem would disappear.
Cowboy, your comment is very insightful. You are perfectly right. The dismal state of the present economy coupled with the political tribalism makes life on the island distressing. So many just move to places where life is more vibrant and rewarding.
Don’t forget lack of proper health care facilities as well.
Give the Chinese 20 years from now, they will make Dominica a little China, the people of Dominica complain too much, no action, just bla bla bla, someone else will come build this country and put new hospitals, new airport, and infrastructure, cause the economy to grow. then you all will say the Chinese took over the country.
A mind is a terrible thing to waste. When the pilgrims came to the New World (America) if they thought like the people of Dominica, America would not be what it is today. No positive thinkers. Sorry for the haters. Truth be told
We DO have positive thinkers.. Most of them relocated to the U.S.A., Canada and England! A guy like Skerrit does not encourage us to stay. Why, even he himself is hardly ever there.
Mr Marie
You self wicked too wi. You seeing the state of the country, you talking about declining population? You think people want to stay here when they figure yes life is not a bed of roses out there but they can enjoy fruits of their labour? Just tell me what exactly it have here to draw folks here? The fact that if you want to go out is a date you might have to attend? Or the pot holes you can perform olympic training in? Some places still have no electricity so not even a fan the man can turnnon after a long day of work. Service providers bohboling people. The country leader telling you to “stomp them out” then calling for unity among folks when he souring the animosity between folks. Garvin, if it wasn’t for live of country and stability, I join the March to leave this place and I not standing in nobody eat when they say they going. When the country fix the things you talking about will follow, I doh need a degree in economics to figure that out.
DLP takes a long time to allow people to enter the country through immigration … process takes five years then two years at least. It’s a way of bringing in taxes. Some people get bored waiting and paying and give up..
In the wild an animal population increases significantly when food resources increase & likewise decrease when the sources of food decrease. The same applies for human culture. Where there is prosperity, population thrives. And where there is adversity and difficult living conditions, the population dwindles.
When you have a ……. from Barbados called skerritt running a country you expect ppl to stay and suffer while he and his wife playing like monarch in the country. All of you all are blasted hypocrites, chinese will soon overrun you all. Greedy greedy idiots.
Among the factors named, and interestingly coconut water improves a man’s fertility, the lack of births can also be attributed to the morning after pill that is sold over the counter, and the drive to succeed in an environment where people’s culture has shifted to casual sex as a stress reliever rather than a controlled act of love expressing ones desire to continue their genetic pool. With casual sex comes abortion and decisions lacking accountability. A casual sex driven culture stems from mainstream media selling sex via telecommunications mediums as a means to make money. Also vacations have taught young people that Dominica lacks opportunity for monetary social advancement where our culture does not favor young people holding responsible positions, even after being educated abroad. Failing to respect their rights as taught, leads them to seek opportunities elsewhere. Things don’t work for most of us unless you are Mr. or Mrs. so and so, existing in DA since sliced bread. Young…
You are so right thats whats killing dominica you have to be Mr and Mrs so and so to get by, Thats total nonsense!!! In dominica is some shall eat !!!
What Dominica needs is a new government with a leader that is capable of getting Dominicas economy on track again and create employment and attract investment. Dominicans would quickly return to their island. There is no reason why DA couldn’t have 100,000 inhabitants.
Skerrit chased all the half decent ones away with his corruption and nepotism.
It have too many young boys who drop out of school who are now porros while the girls stay in school and get educated and seek big jobs, who do you want them to make kids for? Definitely not those parros amd jail birds ! That’s why many turn to have same sex relationships and obviously woman and woman cant breed. Look they want to legalize weed so is now the population die.
I dont think my father consumed bananas with this pesticide because every where he inserts his dagger a child comes out of there 9 months after. Shaking my head. Where can I buy these bananas?
Poppycock Mac., right now I am looking at bananas in Waitrose, an upmarket chain of grocery stores in the U.K, proudly displaying signs saying that they are from St. Lucia. To my knowledge our sister island did not face a decline in population like we do. They grow and export their fruit. We have not been doing so for some time and this happened under the current regime. Some men and women are just infertile, nothing to do with bananas.
So Dominica has economists then? I thought we didn’t have because shortly after Maria Skerrit chose a Bajan by the name of Avinash Persaud, as his chief economic advisor. Marie was out of state man or, was he not qualified? Or who knows matbe Skerrit wanted someone that could help him deliver Ross to Barbados and who therefore Avinash Persaud was the best person for the job since he is Bajan. And now Avinash Persaud is an advisor of Mia Marttley? Gason that thing was well planned
Over the last few years political victimization and discrimination has been forcing out our highly qualified citizens.
Opportunity, who is going to stay on Dominica without economic opportunity? The only people who can live on Dominica are retirees and other people who have a outside income. Dominica needs a complete revamp of leadership a complete disbanding of the Government and a new government voted in of people who serve the people and not themselves.
I hope you are not suggesting that we procreate more to produce more children with single mothers to live in state built apartments and so create a populace dependent on government, so they must vote for them? Social engineering they call that. That is for Cuba, Russia orChina but not for me thank you.
Mark, when we were children in our village growing up I know women who gave birth over age forty; and those children were not born with medical issues or deformities! I had two brothers born after our mother was forty years old. If you remember my brothers Almoor and Joel, they did not born with any medical issues.
Almoor life ended (Inspector Robin in the Antigua Police Force) when he was gun down by four thieves when they went to rob a business place where my unfortunate brother just happen to be. Joel was riding home from work in Guadeloupe on his motorcycle, when an inebriated woman ran him over with a car.
Prior to that they lived normal life’s, have children, and grand children with no unusual medical issues. I think it is a bad idea for doctors to influence women not to reproduce after age forty, unless they medically prove determent to the child or mother.
Education should not prevent pregnancy; in America, women in college gives birth!
Oh oh, wow Francisco, I never thought you were capable of writing something sensible. But oop…I better not talk too fast.![:-|](https://dominicanewsonline.com/news/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_neutral.gif)
I thought Dr. Fontaine and Ken Vidal were the only economists we had since they were the only ones talking when they saw signs of danger created by Skerrit.
McCarthy Marie is an economist. He is economical with words!
Is not evetybody dat want to be in allu roro!
Marie…..NO disrespect.
But the majority of people are concerned about daily survival in this country and you are talking about declining population mostly link to migration.
When our economy is revamp, decent healthcare is available and the majority of poor folks are working then we can talk about population decline.
Exactly @Real. It’s mainly the state of the economy and the quality of life. The more robust the local economy, the more comfortable and satisfied the citizens are, the more the population grows. People usually stay put when they are happy and procreate. No need to emigrate.
All the refugees in the world and we cannot attract any here.
The number of inhabitants is not a problem ;
Would it be better to have more uneducated or unemployed people ?
the problem is the purchasing power and the life standard.
You’d only find people like Haitans interested of coming in ; and their contribution to the GDP is nothing.
Also keep in mind that DA is small and very mountainous ; too much people would create pratical issues.
Mark,you are avoiding the real issue which is that the prospects for raising children with decent standard of living, health care, education and job opportunities are so poor that our people that have a chance take the opportunity and leave. Ask yourself why and address the real issues like the Ross debacle instead of diverting attention away from that. You are not that smart Mark, we can all see through that.
That’s my real concern,but he avoids it He knows why.
Mark people need more money,in order to raise more children. Ross is gone. Things are getting tougher. Who is going to make sure that they subsist in a descent manner?Skerrit’s Red Clinic?
Where The Wicked Rule the People MOURN
This DLP is a Wicked and Evil Party.
It’s unbearable to see the negativity that is being spewed on this website and yet, you are asking for investment? I recently visited my birth place which is DOM and was fascinated and surprised at the progress. I AM a US citizen by choice and for economical reason, but the DOM I left behind 40 years ago has much improved. % I have followed YOUR rethrotic and garbage for a while and all I can say, you are a joker and a fraud. I visited the USVI last month and St.Martin on my way to DOM, you could see the pain and suffering of the people. Going to my village of Scotts Head, I was amazed of the progress, although water is a issue.
Uncle since you referred to McCarthy as Mark, I suspect you might be from our region; if so you might be able to reminisces on the circumstances under which the majority of us grew up; we were poor not knowing we were poor.
The reason is we made do with what our parents could afford. Mark was a bit more fortunate than many of us however, one could not consider his parents rich. I am not basing my argument on Mark in particular, nevertheless he is today an economists by profession, I know he has a sister who became a Nun, his other sister, I do not know what she became, but I know she was also smart.
His brother Hector is my friend, he is no fool either. Our people then did not allow hardship to prevent them from having children; and educating their children, most of us born in hard times are highly educated.
MaJohn fed me what she could afford: Here I am a professional Electronic/Electrical Engineer!
McCarthy Marie bread buttered on three sides, that is why u cannot understand why people have less children, well let me educate u, things are harder in Dominica today than they were 20 years ago. Our school system is sending children who cannot read or do arithmetic at the college level. Unless u send your child pioneer the other options give them a sub standard education. The prices of groceries are so high that you must get barrels from outside to survive. How can people raise children in a country like this? Alot of single mothers have to spread there legs or go to the red clinic to pay utility bills.
MARK
While one would agree that the population is dwindling or has there is one thing you have not mentioned, where should these reverse migration come from and there are reasons why people leave Dominica. unemployment , or extra hard work to survive which some of us have not experienced . Dominicans choose to go to the nearby French islands ,or further north for employment what seem as greener pastures would people leave these islands to come to Dominica? words are that most of the Haitians who come to Dominica do so with one thing in mind migration. example there are a number of them who ended up in the us virgin islands from the north do you have a solution or any idea where the reverse migration should come from ?
Thanks for the information Mac. We appreciate the effort to gather the data and present it in an easily digestible format. I wonder about the proposed immigration program though. Who? From where?
Who would want to migrate to Dominica and make her their permanent home? Dominicans in the diaspora? I seriously doubt that. Unless Babylon falls and the dollar dies that is not going to happen in any significant way. Even when they have entered their retirement years, as nostalgic and patriotic as they are the quality of health care and associated services are so different from what they are accustomed as to be a significant disincentive. I understand that the “English” Dominicans are returning, to England, in significant numbers.
Nationals from other countries? That only makes sense if their countries are worse off than D/a, and there are not many of those.
This brings us to the root of the issue: To stem the population decline & make D/a attractive requires raising the standard…
OK, thank you Mark Marie. So first of all that’s the kind of analysis I like to see published, although there is still a lot of verification of sources to be had.
However Mark makes some important points but he stayed far from identifying the increased economic hardship as a deterrent towards childbirth and for same reason a major deterrent to Foreign Direct investment which should increase the population by in-migration of foreigners.
So it is true we have a population problem, but to improve that we have to do one single thing and that is make better policies to make the cost of living lower and to make Dominica a more attractive place for foreign investment as compared to the rest of the OECS or CARICOM..BVIs Population is just about 30,000 and 60% of that are foreigners, Cayman similar situation …so it’s not only about fertility. The Economics have a big part to play. Soon our Social Security system will collapse too, no replacements of the old.
Your net migration numbers simply tells us that the policies at home are redundant. High unemployment, poor medical treatment and care for the non-communicable diseases that you mentioned, coupled with poor foreign direct investment, the most expensive port in the Eastern Caribbean and the most expensive electricity rates in the Eastern Caribbean all contributed to economic stagnation. Lack of affordable air access is one colossal problem that you and your selfish cohorts have rallied against for decades. It would be nice to see an article penned by you that states tangible solutions. As usual, it’s just more hot air that leads to nothing substantial.
Thank God McCarthy is just mouthing off and no policies will be formulated based on his OPINIONS. For someone who describes himself as an economist, these are so many flaws in his arguments, I am not even sure where to start.
– “it is not advisable to have children after forty…” It is not that it is not advisable to have children after 40. Biologically is it rare to bear children after 40.
– “partly due to significant infertility in the male population” – Where is the evidence?
– “they would have been made so by DBCP.” – Again where is the evidence?
He suggests: A robust, targeted immigration programme should be put in place if we are to avoid the fate of Japan”
How about this idea: Create opportunities and incentives for Dominican citizens to:
(a) remain on island
(b) return to the country after they finish their studies
(c) Expat Dominicans to return after they retire
Then (d) immigration of foreigners
With respect to DBPC (Nemagon) check this document from the European Union. Look for the chapter in Part A on “DBPC and Male Infertility”. Remember this is a news report, not an article for an academic journal.
https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/late-lessons-2/part-a-lessons-from-health-hazards
No dude, you should have consulted with others, friends or technicians in the same profession before putting this out. I know you mean well Mark but it’s very telling that an insider would admit that ‘Dominica is dying’ and that shouldn’t have been so. Although I still dislike the other guys for selling Domlec, you must also admit that we have tried this gov’t for almost 20 years and sad to be in this predicament, wouldn’t you say?
The people who would most likely be affected by this chemical are well past the age where they ca support or grow the population. Farming is just about dead in Dominica so there are very few men exposed to that chemical. If your argument hold true, the men who would be affected are well past the age where they would having children.
I have no statistics to back this up, but if I were to hazard a guess, I think the state of the economy is largely responsible for the declining population. Who wants to have children when they have trouble providing for themselves? Which young person of child bearing age wants to stay in Dominica if an opportunity presents itself overseas?
These are the issues we should be focusing on; not chemicals used for farming.
Mark, what saddens me is the fact that you’ve allowed politics to cloud your professional judgment. How do you omit blinding factors such that I mentioned in my comments while formulating your hypothesis? This is beyond me.
Mark as usual, is day too late and a dollar short. There’s an annual report published by the University of the West Indies and International Monetary Fund that suggests population numbers for small island states. It also includes percentages or numbers of people that should be trained in specific fields to foster continued growth and development. I’ve been aware of this since my days at the Dominica Grammar School. Guys like yourself continue to deceive the Dominican population and now that we’re at “Critical Mass,” you suddenly see the light. Remember Mark, you and your boy Gregor Nassief raised hell fire against an international airport for Dominica. Now that Ross left and 30% of your GDP is gone, you’re talking. By the way, how did the failure to innovate and keep up the times work out for Dominicans? Welcome to the next level.
We must not allow Mark to change the narrative As an economist, I an yearning to hear him talk about the departure of Ross,a company which contributed 30% of our GDP.
Where The Wicked Rule the People MOURN
This DLP is a Wicked and Evil Party
You should have listened to the Radio me on the radio a couple weeks ago when I was speaking about the departure of ROSS. In fact, if you had listened to me speak at the consultation on the CBI in April 2017 you would have heard me say that it was my opinion that the CBI would funds would serve us better if we used the money to open 3 more universities rather than “luxury hotels”.
Mark, hotels are very essential to support the tourist industry; however, without overnight tourist, meaning people flying in for extended vacations staying between five and ten days, which is the normal vacation time for someone from Europe and North America.
The is whereas we do not have an International Airport to support the tourist industry, Dominicans can build all sort of little crap and call then hotels that will help change the economy of the country when they all will remain empty.
Another thing even if we build an International Airport, and we do not advertise Dominica internationally as a tourist destination, nobody will know Dominica exists because Dominica is not a house hold name internationally; and finally we need foreign investment, foreign hoteliers to invest in hotels in Dominica.
The reason tourism has made Antigua, Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Marten, and other places in the Caribbean prosperous is because more than 90% on those islands are owned by…
Wonder how he would describe his study now, if 2016 the island was literally dying. Just imagine with all that happening if literally would still be used.
Dominica is too hard for its citizens, its easier to leave the country than to stay and be at the mercy of poor people children who only purpose is to make life as hard as possible for other poor people. Dominica will mash you up, kill your dreams and break your spirit if you want to make it you have to become a ruthless Dominican.
Dominica is doomed and really what is there to offer,Have a pm in office for 18 years and what has he done,Dominica can never move forward.
real talk. this is a serious issue and it is not a partisan one.
Mr Marie I don’t think I have heard your voice re the ROSS ISSUE.This is the hot ticket item now.
It’s shameful that an incompetent and lazy PM would allow Ross to go.
We need answers.
Skerrit Must Go
Skerrit Must Go
Skerrit Must Go Now
Your claim is that Skerrit must go now. But I am here to tell you that Skerrit not going anywhere soon. For 18 years the people rejecting you guys you doesn’t see something is wrong. A bunch of talk no action. And that’s the way you guys want to win an election. At the end of de day the people feel more safe with Skerrit than you guys.
That a puerile and apathetic answer.Chronic apathy has the country as it is.
Skerrit Must Go
Skerrit Must Go
Skerrit Must Go Now
And Mark stated Dominica is dying?
You should listen to the radio more often, including DBS. I discussed the ROSS issue for one hour from 9 to 10 AM.
I had a philosophical debate with myself on the toilet this morning. It was about as newsworthy as this article.
Mark Marie if you are worth your salt in economics you would realize people are leaving because of the poor state of the economy. Skerrit refuse to create jobs all he doing is creating dependency. What should sensible skilled people do? Why stay here to continue to enrichen skerrit and his friends? People follow the money so they are running to survival. Dominicans love their country no matter what, so if jobs were being provided they would not be running anywhere. Those overseas would love to come home but to what? DLP supporters are made up mostly of illiterates and greedy people who care nothing for country. three quarters are dumb worshippers they other quarter benefitting. How can this country improve? Just check Venezuela, this is our fate.
Education & Brain drain: In regards to the education sector i would like to see laws enforced for students who go out there to study and never return on government scholarships however that can only happen when our economy is welcoming enough and higher paying jobs presents itself.
Increase in Cost of Living: It’s so expensive for the normal man and woman to raise a child today because of the high cost of living. This can be fixed through many ways however an increase in the minimum wage is one way to begin and lowering of taxes on goods and services in the health sector and early childhood life is a next.
The Economy again….Everything can be fixed with a prospering economy, a reason why i will always bring it up. If our economy is booming in manufacturing, tourism, agro-processing and all the other sectors, then this in itself will attract people to our shores, not only those who have left and don’t want to come back but those who are well educated foreigners.
That’s the DLP plan, the more stupid and uneducated people on the island the longer they stay in power and the more money they have to give their cronies.