Keen observers saw it coming. Intelligence projected it would happen and others were in denial.
It doesn’t matter now. The odds are perhaps the perfect storm of disaster was allowed to happen for copious reasons.
Beyond the conceived theories, I think it boils down to gross economic mismanagement, squandering approximately a trillion dollars and quite a lot more in mineral resources. Inadequate oversight and measures to mess with the market (price-fixing/price control distortion), a worthless currency and runaway inflation made matters worse.
In search of a scapegoat that has overwhelmed President Nicholas Maduro’s government officials are accusing Curacao and Aruba for contributing to the shortage of vegetables, fruits and fish, going to great lengths explaining that this contraband is harmful for Venezuela.
Historical perspective
Back on November 5, 2013, I wrote the column ‘Oil for food – a Crisis of Confidence’ in reference to the shortages of 53 items that made up Venezuela’s basic food basket and the 23,000 distribution centers — supermarkets, little stores, open air markets that make food and other commodities available to the people of Venezuela.
And I asked the question: But, with Saint Lucia’s membership of ALBA, has the government developed a plan for the production and export of goods and services to help out a fellow friend?
“Oil for food! Oil for toilet paper! Oil for soap! Oil for bananas! To add too Simply Beautiful!”
Forced to live with little food, perhaps the need for toilet paper has subsided? But the thought process is the same then as it is now – PetroCaribe is more ideological suicide that it is economically practical.
Almost two and a half years later, the limits of courage and endurance, the sometimes intolerable demands of conscience have taken their toll. In sombre brilliance Maduro traveled to Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago to affirm deals on energy, trade, security and foreign affairs. On May 23, 2016, Venezuela agreed to buy US$50 million in food from neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago.
“Among the priority items Venezuela had requested were butter, chicken, pork, ketchup, rice and black beans. The Trinidad and Tobago government also signed a memorandum of understanding with Maduro to purchase gas from Venezuela, which Maduro said stood to benefit both countries.”
On October 21, 2015, I detailed Nicolas Maduro’s ‘Caribbean engagement’ a flamboyant optic in autocracy.
“Addressing the joint session of parliament in Saint Lucia, Maduro referred to “ALBA, PetroCaribe and CELAC as the new architect in the region to move forward and achieve all the successes that we enjoy today…a new integrated and productive economy, to transform these zone in a dynamic zone for investment for commerce.
“Further, Maduro’s concept of commitment to advancing the cause for the creation of a PetroCaribe economic zone is heading into the realm of deception that is likely to crash and burn under the weight of Venezuela’s economic underpinning in oil revenue that accounts for approximately 96 percent of Venezuela’s foreign income, consistently under US$50 a barrel.”
Indeed, the noise of the time has silenced the narrative like a broken record. Actually, feelings and intentions coupled with the elegant fiction of power, is unable to supersede reality and economics.
It happened, that on February 15, 2016, I wrote Venezuela’s collapse has happened.
“This means, as long as oil prices stay historically low, a power struggle looms and a new round of instability could keep growing. Venezuela has overshot both on the high side and on the low side. It is time to cut the denial and accept; it is time to look to the future.”
Avoiding the worst
This can’t be – the mind may refuse to believe what is happening, but truly, what happens next depends on President Maduro, perhaps to remember that charity begins at home.
How does one pray to the deity living a sham, feelings and intentions when government owns the means of production and is inept as well as corrupt?
Oil rich Venezuela is struggling with widespread blackouts and shortages. Looting and growing street protests are commonplace in the search for basic necessities of life. And the fear of economic bankruptcy and deterioration of the oil sector has increased exponentially.
Of course it can be put back, but economic and political insurgencies are perhaps right that socialist rule no longer needs to exist.
The desire for freedom and the simultaneous need for political and economic reform is too great to pigeonhole 30 million Venezuelans.
On the basis of that trend, I am not alone in believing that President Maduro’s government will fall. It’s only a matter of time! This is supported by multiple intelligence and open cracks in his government that can be heard from a distance as pressure is applied.
Up-front
President Maduro’s government is essentially the problem. The thought of prolonged suffering, more indignation of the country’s wealth and the squandering of natural resources are unimaginable. Destiny at this point is seemingly an escape route from the worsening crisis not likely to harbour him to complete his term through to 2018.
The clock is ticking to find a democratic resolution. A coming together of the armed forces, the opposition Democratic Unity and 30 million civilians will have to step forward with a common agenda to free Venezuela from a despot and the exposure to existential threat.
And so, the open smack down from OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro referred to Maduro as a petty dictator, a traitor and a liar, nevertheless surprising and unforeseen in the typical button-up formality to be diplomatic – the sad story is the pain, suffering misery and dying people of Venezuela who thirst for aid and assistance from despotic rule.
Taking control
It is self-evident that the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) is showing proactive leadership and seems preparing for the eventuality of a humanitarian crisis. A run on the reserves of the ECCB is not far-fetched, which means preservation of the EC dollar remains paramount to the region’s financial strength.
Indeed, it is incumbent on regional governments to adjust accordingly in the throes of historical upheaval in Venezuela, the Americas and the sub region and the need to look deep and hard to develop a true regional frontier.
So whereas the price of oil will rise, Venezuela’s social, political and economic re-configuration is inevitable. Likewise, the Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas (ALBA) and PetroCaribe. History has proven repeatedly that socialism does not work – the Soviet Union, Cuba and now Venezuela are vivid examples.
The argument
If this somehow wasn’t understood before, the sub region will once again undergo a political and economic transformation. But most significantly, to avoid repetition of errors the level of political, economic and ideological perspective must be elevated.
Forward discussions on Venezuela are likely to centre on a new and stable democratic government; modern reform and free-market policies; economic diversity to become greater producers; investments in renewable energy; efficiency of existing oil assets; debt restructuring, a reliable currency and adherence to human rights and security.
So really, if not drowned in falsehood and having learned the right lessons, from irresponsible fiscal policy and phony leadership, I believe, better is possible with a sense of urgency to remedy what is happening in Venezuela.
Melanius Alphonse, from St. Lucia, is a management and development consultant, a long-standing senior correspondent and a contributing columnist to Caribbean News Now. His areas of focus include political, economic and global security developments, and on the latest news and opinion. His philanthropic interests include advocating for community development, social justice, economic freedom and equality. He contributes to special programming on Radio Free Iyanola, RFI 102.1FM and NewsNow Global analysis. He can be reached at: [email protected]
What Maduro wearing blue instead of red?Has he changed his allegiance? Does Skerrit know? And comrade Maduro, it is o.k. to eat the banana comrade, no need to lick it.
Small minded banana peasant rationale…tut…tut…tut.
The writer is right on, socialism has worked nowhere. The only people that profit, are the big boys in the party, not the poor.They trapped the less fortunate with hand outs, and they become addicted to it .There was a man originally from Grand Bay who once said this “Why buy a cow, when you can get free milk.”
The thing is, such people never own a cow and they continue begging for a drop of milk till they breathe their last breath.
Margaret Thatcher former P.M of England gave a speech in 1983 and she said “There is no such thing as government money,or public money It is the tax payers money.
No political system here on earth is perfect.But as a young person if you go to school and or learn a skill,stay far from drugs including alcohol,don’t envy those who have succeeded,last, but not least. Accept the Savior and let Him guide you on the way and if you do. YOU WILL GO PLACES.
this article is wishful thinking and written on the premise of the demise of others, it stinks of politics rather than regional unity and betterment for all.
It is written on the premise of the demise of others? Or is it really just a vivid assessment of the inevitable? How can it not stink of politics if the very nature of the problem is political? Or do you mean that the politics that was addressed here stinks – i.e. the politics of inept, corrupt socialism that was exercised by Hugo Chavez (and now Nicolas Maduro) and their socialist party. If that’s the case then I completely agree with you.
If anything the only thing the article missed is to make mention of the initiator of all this chaos. Lucky for him he is resting peacefully while his carefully chosen successor is taking the blame for the situation he created.
It is what it is. I show you an egg and you cry NOOOOOO, it is a cricket ball, well you need an Ambrose bouncer on your head.
Venezuela is ripped, a failed state and many like you and Skerrit are in denial and all you doh ready yet.
Who is next, well not a difficult question, it is Dominica , which is already a failed state.
A well written article, analysis of the situation in Venezuela. If you disagree with it, or question, do your own research and give us a well reported analysis to compare, we are waiting.
Where are my brothers and sisters who write such rubbish comments. Where are their comments. When a learned person writes, they dare not respond because we are so engrossed in stupid foolish party politics. Or is it that the brother has spoken the truth and Labourite know it and that UPW benefit from Alba and care less about Venezuela. We need to stand back and agree with the brother who wrote the article. He is correct. I also predicted that Venezuela would be in that position today because of irresponsible economic policies and providing such generous hand outs to Caribbean countries becasue Venezuela wanted Caribbean Leaders to punish USA. Our Caribbean leaders knew better, but wanted to suck blood from Venezuela. Now those Caribbean Leaders can only say, we will support Venezuela. What support – hopeful that oil prices will rise to get more handouts. Caribbean leaders should come together and drive a strategy to assist without getting into that country’s internal politics.
Oh how i wish that the so called journalists in Dominica would write articles like Melanius does.
A sham is a sham and it is very vulnerable to the test of time. The truth is, the real problem is the socialist system. It is not so much Maduro. The socialist leadership of Venezuela is primarily concerned with holding on to power via a populism or what i think is exploitation of the poor and middle class.
It is a fact that Venezuela merely git by even when the price of fuel was at its highest. The country operated at breakeven for many years; not neglecting the syphoning of billions of dollars from the people thru corruption.
Lang Mamma , you are so right, where are our journalists in Dominica to offer us synopsis of Dominica`s ailing economy and lack of development.
The closest I have seen is a response on DNO entitled “In response to Volney” written openly by Francis Joseph. It was Volney taking a bash on Hon Lennox Linton and attempt to promote leadership (?) of Skerrit, who obvious like Venezuela, Skerrit has killed Dominica`s democracy and development. We need more of this failed states misery created by incompetent leaders who travel the world and the only th9ng they come back with is BIG TALK, with emptiness and false hopes for the poor of Dominica and a failed economy where there is no growth.
Maduro about to put a work on that ‘ryfig’
Well the EC countries should take warning, the US put Venezuela on its knees by manipulating the oil price, it is even easier to put the EC countries on their knees by untying the US dollar to the EC dollar and we won’t have knees far less for legs to stand on. Take warning Hon. Skerrit and the Dominicans who know better stop striving on the ignorance of your less fortunate nationals. Because this one will affect all and there will be no easy bounce back. TAKE WARNING
If you think that the U.S. controls the world price for oil, you’re as big a fool as the real Trump.
i was thinking the very same thing!!!!
brilliant piece Mr. Alphonse.
Venezuelans were duped by chavez!!!
AS long as you enter government through force there is a problem.
when you really want to represent you go to the polls!!
my Dominica is not pumping it’s chest over all de sympathy and concern for de venezuelan people.
when chavez was dying PM Skerrit sobbed!
when Gaddaffi was running scared Skerrit and cecil Josep called US and others imperialist ########
all manner of nastiness!!
one thing is clear to me……….skerrit doesn’t think much of Maduro….much less de people of Venezuela.
Chavez was skeirrit claimed step father.
Chavez showered skerrit with perks to pump his pride!
Maduro could care less for skerrit!
ALBA has failed!!!
I suspect the U.S.$. 50 million food package supplied by T&Tn to Venezuela is paid for by natural gas in which case the T&T government would have bought it at a discount if they are smart. Beggars can not be choosers.
Venezuelans are calling on the Countries/Islands that they have helped in the past, but Maduro’s ( President ) don’t want the outside world to hear about it, the people are speaking out and they are demonstrating peacefully too.
Why Leaders of the world believe that they a really in charge for the writing is on the wall for them.