A total of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes are expected this season.
According to the forecast which has been released by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, this is slightly above the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes but less than last year.
After last year’s disastrous hurricane season that included storms like Harvey, Irma and Maria, foreasters do not expect much of a hurricane reprieve this year.
A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June through November. With the season less than two months away.
Near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic contributed to the surge in activity in 2017, especially in terms of major hurricanes.
However, research scientist at Colorado State University, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, points out that while the western tropical Atlantic is currently warmer than average, other portions, including the eastern tropical Atlantic and the north Atlantic, are cooler than average,” Klotzbach said.
“As of now, I don’t see anything in the immediate future that would cause sea surface temperatures to warm up dramatically. However, there is certainly still time for this to occur, which is one of the biggest challenges with issuing forecasts this early,”
Although hurricane season in the Atlantic starts June 1, the majority of storms occur between mid-August and mid-October, meaning this prediction is coming four months before the bulk of hurricane activity.
Hurricane development could also be impacted by meteorological occurrences El Niño and La Niña.
El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by warmer than normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has widespread impacts on the global climate. One of the elements is increased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which creates hostile conditions for hurricane development.
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, characterized by cooler water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. When La Niña is present, conditions tend to be more favorable for hurricane development in the Atlantic.
Currently, we are in a weak La Niña and the forecasters at Colorado State believe that over the next several months conditions will change to the extent where we may not experience either El Niño or La Niña. However, Klotzbach warns, “If El Niño were to suddenly develop, that would certainly knock down our forecast.”
Regardless of the season’s activity, Colorado State forecasters remind coastal residents that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.
Colorado State will update its outlook on May 31 after further analysis of the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Additionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will provide its hurricane outlook in May.
Predicting the weather and hurricanes is an inexact science. Let’s hope that the forecasters are wrong about the upcoming hurricane season. We must prepare though for any eventuality.
This is all crap, no one could never forecast from that far all rubbish, asked that same forecaster if it will be raining on May 28th 2018 it would be oh no we have no idea all BS.
Man Bites Stray Dogs! Why are you so perpetually angry? Did you have an abusive, miserable childhood? Did all the girls in your classes treated you with scorn? You remind me very much of a toothless dog that barks at every passer-by. I would certainly recommend that you seek professional help by taking some anger management classes. Here are your angry, repetitious words: idiotic, crap, nasty, foolish, stupid, rubbish, BS, garbage. It’s not surprising that ALL these words perfectly describe you. You are so far gone that not even gallons of Clorox, Pine-Sol, Fabuloso and Savon can cleanse your unhygienic mind.
De hurricanes ready, Dominicans are you?
I hope the World Bank is paying attention to what Skerrit is doing in Dominica, especially with the amount of money they giving to Skerrit to help rebuild Dominica after the devastation of Maria and, how for some unknown reasons, Skerrit seems to be getting money to bribe politicians but nothing to protect the people of Dominica from heavy rain and wind, let alone from floods or wind. Apart from the roads that have been cleared, cell phone services restored to at least 85%-90%, 10-15% of power has been restored, we have seen ABSOLUTELY NOTHING MORE, to restore or protect Dominicans. Yes rivers have been cleared but it’s nothing more than politics which is all Skerrit is interested in. We see BLUE taps all over as the people are unable to cover their houses with over 75% of houses are still uncovered. How is Skerrit still the leader of Dominica with all that mess is a mystery.
Unfortunately Skerrit is tightening his corrupt grip by the day. Dominica has developed into a failed state under Skerrits regime. I’m now at a stage where I’m giving up on my country because one cannot help someone that does not want to help itself. The majority of citizens is greedy and just as corrupt as their PM. All that’s left to say, you all made your bed and I just hope that all you will sleep very uncomfortable in it! Within 20 years all you managed to destroy a beautiful country!!!
Pathetic are you Randy X. Your hatred of one (1) man. Did he bring the hurricane … You all must repent of the things you say. Read your comments again. May be you are the one not helping yourself. Maybe you complain too much and do not open your eyes wide. Ah Magway Sa. You cannot pin point anything and quantify in $ and Sense. You and all those hating only repeating what others want to say… Those who want to be where he is so they fatten themselves. Look around you and I am sure you can see development despite our destruction by Maria. You negative folks even want to blame the man with natural disasters. Father have mercy on those persons who cannot stop complain and are always negative and the blaming game begins.
Now you giving up? I give up on Dominica since 2008
Do you know what I have come to realize with the cult-like supporters of the government? They perceive every criticism of Skerrit as persecution. They consider every factual assertion that is unfavorable to the government to be a lie. If I were to posit that the economy is booming, unemployment is not a problem, the roads are in excellent health, national security is exceptionally magnificent, I will be woefully dishonest. The country is undoubtedly in dire straits. A strong sense of hopelessness pervades the entire island. Skerrit and his Ministers are a poor reflection of a caring government. That is irrefutable. Voting this clueless regime back in government for another term should be unthinkable. These are men who have brought greed, selfishness, incompetence, crudity, arrogance and hyper-partisanship to the political landscape of Dominica. Not another term for them!!!
my Bad what are you doing to help…. talking?.. talking cannot fix anything. You mentioned though somethings done. Did u travel around the country??? Did u see the magnitude of destruction – Natural – Water, Wind, Rain. But please be truthful with yourself and say this is a big time job. Only God can help us. Ungrateful too as you want to blame the man you hate for no reason. Can he do everything? So many nations came to assist. Many of us are all alive … for the magnitude of destruction- we did not have so much deaths. Have you stopped and look up and tell our Father thank you? Have you said thank you to those who came physically to help. Have you stopped and said thank you to those countries who sent help. Stop being negative … It is not about your selfish self. It is about our country Dominica. Kick out hatred and negativity out of your life … say what you see… stop being a follower and repeat what you cannot prove. Think for yourself. Love
@???? Most of what you’re said is very true but I really think more could be done with the amount of money and supplies that were given. Anyway am not one to put down or wish bad for my country or my people but continue to help in the best way I can. Am praying god that god protect us from any other hurricanes.