IMF predicts economic growth for Dominica

WASHINGTON, CMC – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting that the Dominican economy will grow by nearly two per cent in 2010.

Last year, the island recorded a slight 0.3 per cent decline in economic growth, which the Washington-based financial institution blamed on the global economic and financial crisis.

It said there had been lower stayover tourist arrivals, foreign direct investment inflows, and remittances from Dominicans abroad.

“However, Dominica has benefited from a relatively favourable fiscal position, which allowed room for countercyclical government action,” the IMF said after a mission from its Western hemisphere Department visited Dominica late last month for the annual discussions on economic developments and macroeconomic policies

“Reflecting in part the authorities’ decision to maintain the level of capital spending in 2009 at the high level in 2008, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have shown only a slight decline of 0.3 per cent.”

The mission met with Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit, senior government officials and members of the private sector and the labour movement.

According to an IMF statement prices rose 3.2 per cent in the 12 months to December 2009, reflecting increases in world food and fuel prices.

“The near to medium-term economic outlook is positive. With the recovery of the global economy and expected improvements in international trade and tourism activities, the Dominican economy is expected to grow at 1.5 per cent in 2010.”

But the financial institution warned that there will be “downside risks”, if weakness in advanced economies adversely affects tourism demand in Dominica’s key source markets.

“The mission welcomes the fiscal stance for financial year 2009/10, which would imply a primary surplus of three  per cent of GDP. However, additional spending to be financed by external loans would imply a temporary weakening of the primary surplus in financial year2010/11.”

The IMF urged the authorities to return as soon as possible to the fiscal anchor provided by a primary surplus of three per cent of GDP, which it said s of paramount importance for long-term debt sustainability.

It warned that financial vulnerabilities emanating from the nonbank sector have heightened uncertainty and warrant close monitoring.

The IMF said the collapse of the Trinidad-based regional conglomerate, CL Financial Group, and the large role played by credit unions underscore the need to strengthen the supervision of non-bank financial institutions including insurance companies and credit unions.

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  1. hmmm
    March 16, 2010

    It is rather upsetting reading all this hating and words coming from who I believe are fellow Dominicans. This is where the division and downfall of the country begins. You, Your children, Schools, Churches, the workplace. No longer do we have time to praise people for the good or help people see the bad. All we do on the radio, television , bars, churches, health centers, street is fight. most of the times we fight verbally not realizing that this is the begining of distruction. I wish that all we dominicans can begin to run to the light. The light of the world. Stop following the system. it only seeks to confuse you and make you mad at each other. read your bible. turn from your wicked ways. Take back your power as men. I see some of us cry peace but its only to one side of the table. I bet if the table were to turn peace would be out the window. Stop the division. we cannot move forward with it. moving forward without God is moving forward in the wrong direction or moving backward.

  2. Student
    February 6, 2010

    I do agree with Caribbean genius. As long as the IMF is getting their money back, they are happy and they will scream growth while on the ground nothing is happening. To those of you who are quick to take shots at me, read up the history of IMF structural adjustment policies and their effects on Latin America and Africa.

  3. wow
    February 5, 2010

    Growth? What constitutes this growth? Where are these revenues coming from? Growth in what sectors

    I’m not a political party supporter, nor do I care for politics, just would like to know where this growth is coming from.

    ITs not about party, people need to focus on country and stop calling party colors. There’s more to life than this rubbish… put country first instead of greed, thirst for power. I will never ever vote for a political party for as long as I live!

  4. caribbean genius
    February 5, 2010

    The IMF urged the authorities to return as soon as possible to the fiscal anchor provided by a primary surplus of 3% of GDP, which it said is of paramount importance for long-term debt sustainability.

    As much as the prediction of growth is good news, we should be wary of imf advice. Their main concern in their assessment is a countries ability to pay foreign debts. So the growth they are talking about will have no improvement on the lives of ordinary people.

    What we need is growth in the private sector in terms of job creation…

  5. Wait A Minute
    February 5, 2010

    To student: I hope you graduate!!!!!

  6. Eric Cartman
    February 5, 2010

    One of the main ways for small island states/developing countries to develop is through foreign direct investment. Take for example Ross University in Portsmouth which directly and indirectly provides hundreds of jobs in the north of the island.

    One of the main deterrents to foreign investment is perceived political instability and corruption. What am I getting at?

    The UWP and its selfish members do not want to see D/a develop. Or mayb I should say, they are power-hungry and don’t want the country to progress if they are not the ones ‘in charge.’

    When people like Lennox etc go around accusing the gov of corruption at every turn, and people like Ron Green go to St.Kitts makin a fool of himself claiming rigged elections, when the detractors make false claims of a ‘one party state’ and have a so called ‘People’s parliament’ what they are really doing is deterring potential investors with their unsubstantiated allegations and unpatriotic behaviour.

    UWP trying to keep the country back that’s what I’m saying. Shame on all who vote for dat wicked party.

    Respect my authoritah!!

  7. Boaster
    February 5, 2010

    @ Student: Well share your knowledge with the rest of us.

    February 5, 2010

    @ Student:

    Apparently you’ve conducted a survey and concluded that 75% of the readers do not understand what economic growth is. Well, here’s your time to shine. Enlighten the 75%

  9. Thoughtful
    February 5, 2010

    @student, I find your post to be very amusing and very true.

  10. Student
    February 5, 2010

    I am an economics major and I am pretty sure that more than 75% of you have no idea what economic growth is.

  11. Eric Cartman
    February 5, 2010

    I notice the UWPites very silent on this article. All their crying of impending gloom and doom after the elections. How Dominicans so stupid but don’t worry they will see!! Blah blah blah. Especially MARIGOT people.

    I’m pretty sure some UWP supporters, and some detractors of the gov who dominate a certain radio station saw this news about economic growth and were thinking F*&K!!.. it! More good news for that moth*rf&*k*r Skerrit!

    It’s pretty sad when people get mad that the country is doing well simply bcuz it frustrates their political ambitions. The country is in good hands. UWP don’t have a nxt election winning in under 10 yrs and Ron and Eddie should start the transition now if they can find young people willing to stay on their sinking ship.

  12. Mike
    February 5, 2010

    While the IMF is claiming only a 0.3 % decline, Dominica’s Central Bank, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, is reporting a deline of 1.52 per cent. See the Central Bank’s website under Publications (Annual Statistics 2009). Do we believe the IMF or the ECCB? Since the ECCB is actively involved in gathering data and computing the national accounts of Member States, unlike the IMF, their figure seems more credible. Furthermore, the ECCB explains how they arrive at their figures in its report. How did the IMF arrive at its figure?

    Some people are simply poor in reading and even poorer in understanding what they read. Someone on the blog actually believes that the 0.3 % reported by the IMF is an increase in GDP although the IMF says there was a decline. Incredible!

  13. Domerican
    February 5, 2010

    I’m glad to hear some positive news for a change.

  14. Eric Cartman
    February 5, 2010

    Another nail in the coffin of the UWP.

  15. February 5, 2010

    The Family House is filled with furniture and other luxury stuffs ,
    just to play heavy for the neighbours to say they have money.

    But yet still, for so long their children are CRYING HUNGRY and

    are DYING of MALNUTRITION. When will that stop!

  16. Liberated
    February 5, 2010

    This positive outlook for the Dominican economy by the IMF is a clear vindication of the majority of Dominicans who voted to renew the mandate for skerrit and his team to continue developing our country. The detractors should now sit back and observe or better yet join the government in the process of taking this country forward rather then trying their best to undermine the progress that’s being made. Dominica needs stability in order to attain the predicted growth of our economy. we need to forget our party-political differences and work together as one, to achieve these goals.

    February 5, 2010

    this is what we mean by taking the country to the next level

  18. Inthemiddleandcolourblind
    February 5, 2010

    While it is good to read that the IMF is RECOGNIZING dominica’s fiscal position in a favorable manner it is also important to note that the IMF is actually warning against additional external borrowing, and may be more important on top of what we already owe the IMF.

    May be its and actual evaluation on the island’s ability to repay its loans. Dominica’s improvement projects, geared at attracting tourism, unless supported by donations, good easily affect spending. At the same time adverse world financial activities can easily reduce visitors to Dominica.

    In other words, what happened over the pass 12 months is a matter of less spending because the government held off on the external loans the support the many projects declared within a few weeks of the election. Its a good political strategy; it helps in election, but it is also delayed spending and the people have to repay it.

    So lets be mindful and weary of whats happenning and especially IMF.

  19. so it is
    February 5, 2010

    Dominicans just like beff `n roro…….. that all. Inspite of this statement by the MIF, i want to know if Dominica still going to take monetary assistance from them.

  20. baby steps
    February 5, 2010

    dont care how small the increase is but we’re moving foward one step at a time. Forward we go!!!

  21. Progressive mind
    February 5, 2010

    Dominica is in capable hands and we should not lose focus and be sidetracked. We made the right and best choice when we voted Labour to continue the good work.

    Boycotts, protests or court action will not allow us to go back in the dark years of UWP reign.

    Thank God for Brother Skerrit.

  22. Great
    February 5, 2010

    The Haters have nothing to say!!!

  23. Neg Bawie
    February 5, 2010

    Great!! This is the best news which I have heard out of Dominica in a very long time. Lets continue to be wise with our revenue and expenditure.

  24. February 5, 2010

    Listen bro Ron.Tony or Crazy did not say so is the International Money Fund that say so.And there will be more growth if u all continue to act like school children.Hector is time u put your foot down because you are the future of the U.W.P

  25. ALBERT P.
    February 5, 2010







  26. Smurfy
    February 5, 2010

    what does the haters have to say?

  27. Thoughtful
    February 5, 2010

    The Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF visited other countries around the same time of the visit to Dominica and many did not get such favorable review.

    To get a review like this from the hard-nosed and stiff IMF is a big deal within financial circles and many nations crave for such reviews.

    Exciting times are ahead for Dominica. Let us all work together to improve this wonderful nation of ours.

  28. Young Man in Dominica
    February 5, 2010

    i agree lolol

  29. Objective
    February 5, 2010

    Some one is obviously doing their job well !

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