The results of a poll conducted in twelve (12) electoral constituencies in Dominica by The Caribbean Agency for Political Advancement (CAPA) show the United Workers Party (UWP) leading in eleven of those constituencies.
The poll, which CAPA says was a focused opinion poll designed to gauge the electability of political party candidates, was conducted between November 2 and November 16, 2019, on a sample size which was a little under 1.5% of registered voters in each of the areas polled.
The twelve (12) crucial constituencies (based on past and emerging trends) which were polled are La Plaine, Morne Jaune, Castle Bruce, Wesley, Roseau Valley, Roseau Central, Salybia, St. Joseph, Mahaut, Petite Savanne, Vielle Case and Marigot.
Managing Director of CAPA, Alex Bruno who presented the results of the survey via video conference from Miami this morning, said Vieille Case and Marigot were selected because they are the seats held by leaders of the dominant parties – Prime Minister, Roosevelt Skerrit of the Dominica Labour Party (DLP) and the Leader of the Opposition, Lennox Linton of the United Workers Party (UWP).
The poll found that respondents generally believe that elections results will favour the DLP with 34% stating that the incumbent will win. However, in response to the question which political party candidate will you vote for at the upcoming general elections? 46% declared that they will vote for the opposition UWP. 36% said DLP and 18% said they would not vote for either of the political parties.
According to Bruno, 47% of respondents believe that Linton and the UWP present the better plan for people and the future development of the country, while 40% responded in favour of Roosevelt Skerrit and the DLP.
Bruno stated that 49% of the respondents believe that the DLP should not continue to serve as the majority party in the government of Dominica, while 46% believe they should. He said five per cent of those polled were either unsure or they chose to remain neutral.
The CAPA pollster reported that UWP and DLP both enjoyed similar ratings on the question for which political party candidate did you vote at the 2014 general elections. 37% said UWP, 35% responded in favour of DLP and 28% of the respondents gave no response.
When asked, which political party leader is more believable when they message, 40% of respondents said Lennox Linton and 37% said Roosevelt Skerrit with 28% saying that neither of the leaders are/were believable.
On the matter of voting, 71% of respondents said they will be voting on December 6; 12% said that they will not vote and 17% were unsure about casting ballots.
Bruno revealed that the most resounding response in the entire survey was given to the reform question: ‘Do you believe there is need for electoral reform?’ 72% said yes, 4% said no and 14% were uncertain.
Youth unemployment was measured as 63% with adult unemployment at 38%. The National Employment Program (NEP) emerged as a significant source of youth employment.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9%.
Figures on respondents opinions on expected constituency by constituency voting.
I like Alex’s poll. It calms things down and squashes all protests by UWP. That way people can go out and vote with no problems except that at the end of the day it is all LABOUR POWER.. Good job Alex. Keep the howlings in check.
The poll is in the ballpark,Senjoe Monell can win ,but the people they send the free tickets to come and vote,this is not good for Monell.
Tell that bogus self proclaim political scientist to go dump his pol and himself in Labas. There is no credibility in that poll and the his company CAPA . He is just another UWP agent planting his propaganda. The poll conducted by the well renowned pollster Mr. Peter Wickam has more credibility and is more accurate. Answer me this… If the are so poised to win the general election why all the fuss and fight and all the riots? They will smell a win but will never taste it!
Alex that greasy greasy fake poll you are coming up with is to fool your wup supporters., but truth shall set you free.
Keep dreaming Bruno. I wonder how long this dream will last.
I saw a video on Youtube where this same Alex Bruno is talking about the diaspora needing to vote for UWP.
So how is this possible and then be responsible for a polling service? Where is the required neutrality?
Isn’t this what a properly function Electoral Commission would be investigating?
Alex always calls himself a ‘professional ’ however, his actions tell a different story. No professional in your field should be openly partisan as any work you do will just be dismissed as such. You actively campaign for the UWP in your Sunday program. Other than the fact that your poll makes no sense as it doesn’t reflect reality, it is contaminated by your open bias towards one particularly part. Purify yourself and try again in 2025.
Just about 50% of the potential working population in Dominica is unemployed. This is e a damning indictment on the profoundly corrupt Skerrit led government. Mr. Skerrit should be charged with economic malpractice. Putting back this unaccomplished party is like a self inflicted wound. Life is unbearable under this current regime’s tenure.
We the people of Dominica are desperately looking towards the back of failed incompetent Skerrit and his failed highly corrupted Labour government who has failed us Dominicans big time, and they, especially failed immature Skerrit Must Go. Please get the Hell out of our government and our Country Dominica and lets have dedicated, honest and highly professional people to manage our nature island. Hon inton and his UWP Professional Team.
We welcome Hon. Lennox Linton and his trusted, highly professional and intellectual UWP Team – Dominica.
Our Dominicans people wake up and et us begin on this new journey and discipline we need our children’s future and take back Domini from this corru0ted Labour government who has failed us over 19years under this immature Skerrit. Skerrit and DLP must Go. They have failed us an crippled our Dominica.
When I see Felix winning Mahaut over Blackmoore I dismissed that pole as bogus garbage lol
Polls are snapshots in time. It’s like predicting the weather, an inexact science. I’m convinced that illegal voters from the Diaspora skewed the election results of the last poll keeping the DLP as the majority party in government. Despite the fraud, wrongdoings and widespread corruption to keep his party in power, nothing lasts forever. Skerrit and his misguided devotees will one day, in the not too distant future, pay a heavy price for all their misdeeds in government.
Laughable. An openly partisan pollster. You are all over social media spreading anti-Labour sentiment and falsehoods; then like Houdini in a puff of smoke, you reappear as a credible impartial pollster.
Curiously you haven’t accounted for the most significant cause of bias in your pseudo-scientific poll. Please review your notes from your statistics class on scientific bias.
Lenpro remove the wooden glasses ; you fail to see Lennox remain on steadfast for free and fair election no mater if the poll in his favour
Alex your analysis would have bearing only if all variables would remain constant. But when you going to have planes and boats dropping people in , then this is going to change the dynamics of the game. Your poll must show something different.
Thanks PoorWall for the update. Now we Labourites know that we got work to do. Like putting the dog to watch the chicken 🐓 🏡 house, what do you expect! Poor Pity, they the UWP are so desperate by their illusions. Labourites we were just energized by Ambassador Bawie, therefore, we must go out and vote and bring your auntie…….
First of all u not from Bawi u sound foolish we on that peice of rock we stand for what we want and if by chance u talk to people from that area they will tell u other wise so take a page in the salisbury dairy and take it were u come from you forget we got tear gass, skerrit have 42 of our farmers in court six of our elder died because of tear gass may be a few more in future and u talking your garbage skerrit must go .BAWI STAND STRONG.
Alex Bruno, each election year far as I can remember you comes up with your Dodgy polls and making an idiot off yourself it’s best if you stick your poll where the sun never shines.
M.B.D, what’s your problem .. is it not the same with Skerrit who tells Dominicans every general election he is going to build a bogus international airport.. check de manifesto again..
Poll aint saying nothing. Last time allu say uwp will win..what happen then..wait till the 6th ok. Shucks man. On de 6th ending at 6 and what is de other 6 again?
666
I agree, polls are only polls but if that is so why is mr. Skerrit spending so much money on Peter Wickham. I do not know if Alix poll is more reliable but I dd know Lenox Linton not paying for it because he does not have the money remember?
What a joke! Then why the fuss if you are on track to winning. You did a poll at a workers event and that’s the best he could do? The SCL propaganda continues.
Alex I believe you, Tim Tim, so smoke it! Why all the fussing if you are winning Ambassador Bawee. Dr. Vince Henderson was viciously attacked at the U N counselate, my boy you don’t attack one of our own from St. Joseph and think it’s OKAY! There’s a day call retribution Day! UWP are coming to St. Joe and we don’t provoke nor attempt to attack them. We will not let you get away with such atrocious behavior. I am proud of our STATEMAN, he neither curse nor swear, but simple walked away.
The one-man corrupt rogue regime has never won an election legitimately, this is why he wants to continue stealing the elections!!!
I approve this poll!!
This is strange very strange how are you conducting a poll and you are in Miami how many Dominican living in Miami did you call
you are just a fraud you must come down to Dominica run around the country to conduct your poll is time people reading your nonsense are you hoping that if UWP win you will get that job you want as DBS manager you have a long wait get smart.
https://youtu.be/cvNx1IecFhA
Surely this must be investigated by the Electoral commission?
This CAPA chairman of not independent and neutral.
Dominicans who are all so well versed on what constitutes corruption and malpractice must see this for what it is.
Alex Bruno can’t be the Chair of CAPA, provide an “independent” poll in an “unbiased” manner while also producing a YouTube video encouraging voters to vote UWP.
All this talk about Electoral reform, well this is something the Electoral Commission of any country would definitely be investigating.
https://youtu.be/cvNx1IecFhA
What I find most striking is the low score for the DLP candidate for Roseau central Melissa Skerrit as opposed to SoSo. So much money was spent on getting the PM wife electable but the gap between her and the opposition candidate widen. If the information is correct the message must be that money alone cannot buy an election and people make up their own mind regardless. That is really a revelation to me.
Over 1000 Dominicans are demanding the use of passports and other IDs at the upcoming elections. Neither DLP nor UWP supporters want unrest after Dec 6th. Sign the petition here: http://chng.it/Zg8ckSZk7m
Alex you’re as fake as when you said Ma Pampo was 125 years old. You conducting a pole and you in Miami? Are you really serious Pawol? That fake polling won’t help your cause. Stay fake
Common Alex, OMG we are so surprise of your fake poll. “NOT”
Mr. Alex Bruno you are suggesting a 20% swing to the UWP. This happens no where in the world. Something about your methodology or your analysis is suspect. You need o get assistance from learned men in the field of election polling to help you.
I am on the ground in Dominica and to be honest if there was a major swing away from the DLP there would be a greater number of people following the UWP on the ground. The Government would find it very difficult to govern. It is my hope that the UWP don’t find comfort in this poll. The election is close with a wide number of undecided voters. Sorry my friend but based on your margins e.g. Kalinago this poll is flawed and lacks the analysis to support your claims. No need to attack me because I am a proponent for change
Alex not even the UWP believes your poll, or perhaps you did not get the memo that they are asking for a new election date. Alex’s poll numbers for Salybia, Roseau central, St. Joseph, Petite Savanne is totally laughable, but again Alex is a political operative and creator of propaganda for the UWP.
lol Alex Bruno OMG Stop it! and Stop putting the Caribbean in your Alex Fake Polling thing where in Dominica did you go not even your house you left Radio and staying in house will not bring you all into office power hungry Dominicans are no full this white men you all working for we are not for sale. Alex this is the best name for your polling company Alex fake polling Company Inc with UWP LTD. 21 for the DLP
But seriously Alex are a mad man u mean political biasness have you so dumb an idiotic ?but come on the 7 of December wen u get the shock of ur life I wonder what the hell u going to say since in d 2000 election you guys say allu going to win 15 seat an that never materialize is not now dlp at its best allu going to get eleven seat .but the big ? is how u guys(uwp)going to do that ? cuz as far I can see an what am hearing from allu own supporters the last protest mess all chances of all u getting in power Alex remember I told I so ok
I have listened to what i think is intelligent…. as one study…but seems to turn as sour milk….was it because of not getting through the present party? This man has shown his color….bl..bl..God loves u….😂…beat up all u chest….there will b no chest to beat one day….
Wow mister is Edison in print no wonder you are coming with this fake news. You stated that you all are wining why you all are cause all that havoc in the country.
What do you expect fr a SAC CHARBON? (DUST) Alex you and yr ACOLITES allez hide TETE zor in it. Lies ,lies and more lies, Dominicans, don’t believe these kononeires, Liars, manniculaters is power hungry men, their belly full but they hungry.
Ras B ,UWP will LOSE the election by at least 18-3.In 1995 UWP got 34.26% with 11 seats.In 2000 UWP got 43.24% with 9 seats.In 2005 UWP got 43.67% with 9 seats.In 2009 UWP got 34.86% and 3 seats.In 2014 here comes KING LINTON 42.85% with 6 seats.So UWP did better in 2000 and 2005 than with Linton as leader.Election is won by constuency,what party wins the most.I agree with WICKHAM over the past 2 elections DLP has lost support in 4 of the 21 comstituency.Petite Savanne,Portsmouth,Wesley and Roseau North.60,49,4,and 27 respectively,between 2009 and 2014.DLP has gained support in 17 of 21.DLP overall support has never dwindled.Wickham is so right even if they lose more support DLP will still win.In 2014 BLACKMORE lost 361 votes from 2009 and still beat FELIX by 318.If MARCELLIN were to take 600 votes from Skerrit,Skerrit would win by 311.DLP will win Wesley,R Central and R,South.UWP CANNOT WIN St.Joseph and Mahaut.Overall there is a shift from UWP to DLP .18-3 outcome.FAKE.PROPAGANDA.
I have also noticed that there is a 29% polled that either won’t vote or are lethargic towards voting. Interestingly the percentage of voters is quite similar to the Cadres Poll, which was even higher at 32%.
It is reasonable to conclude that the majority of Lethargic voters are predominantly DLP supporters, given the comments made by their leaders on the platform, encouraging their base to get out and vote, as well as the disappointment in performance.
This would also justify the alligations or at least give some credibility to them, that the DLP are importing voters in large numbers.
The reason being, not only do they have to neutralize a negative swing away from various constituencies, but they must also factor in the demotivated base which is some 12,041 voters. While it might not be logistically possible to move such a large number of people, having them placed in close constituencies not polled in their favor, they can actually steal these elections.
How can uwp have a better plan for the country,when they have no plan at all me fake pollster Alex Bruno.
I can seem to edit to give the true meaning of my comment but the Vielle Case seat in particular? Really? Oh my God. Just wait til dec 6th.
One love and peace to all.
You must come up with this poll because yo must get pay. what can one expect from a UWP puppet.
What i meant has the analysis before this one influenced this findings? It looks like a joke. But if you like to see it look at it and take a good look a Vielle Case? Oh my. Marcellin you will never get to the ceiling on this one all of Dominica knows it. Just fill it the vacant candidacy seat for the uwp. But that’s all you will have. Come on now. Let’s be real. One love and peace to all.
The uncertain votes may determine the labour? Has this influenced this analysis. If it good to the eyes look at it but this list of pure crap is not accurate. Has anyone taken a good look at Vielle Case? Unbe-lieeeevaaable!!!!
I like that.
The only disappointment is Skerrit holding on too strong.
Clemo, is now or never. Don’t worry a bi election will follow soon when Skerrit Labour party loses power.
Alex, thanks very much for sharing this information with the public. We can now scrutinize your work, and I will take the lead in doing so.
I have noticed that many of the results are close, with the exception of Roseau Central (26% UWP swing), Kalinago territory (34% UWP swing) similar for Marigot, but that is expected in any case.
However, let’s look at the closer constituencies:
Mahaut: 2% swing for UWP. Using historical data of the last election, as it relates to voter turn out, and votes cast, a 2% swing is just 83 voters.
Roseau Valley: 6% swing in favor of UWP is just 108 voters
Grand Fond 5% swing in favor of UWP is just 62 voters
Laplaine 8% swing in favor of UWP is just 125 voters.
Do you get my point, because a number of these constituencies are trending UWP with close percentages, the Diaspora voters, strategically placed in various constituencies can tip the balance of power.
I can see why the UWP although favorite to win are concerned about election fraud.
Alex Bruno, CEO of(CAPA) Caribbean Agency For Political Advancement, it is very interesting to know that between Nov. 2nd and Nov 22nd you could have achieved such interesting results from your poll to present to the public. You chose 12 constituencies why not the entire 21?
Alex, has this Agency(CAPA), CONDUCTED any POLL in the Caribbean region other than Dominica? How can one prove how credible accurate and sincere your work is when you have not TESTED your work on other shores?
Alex, be honest to yourself. Being such a big advocate for the UWP, do you ever believe you would present a poll in DLP FAVOR?
Surprising to read, you favored Skerrit over Clemo. Wasn’t he(Clemo) you UWpites referred to as the DAVID who was going to defeat Goliath?
Alex, your motive is very clear but it can also be too obvious. You have tried and still trying your utmost to see whether you can help the UWP win the election but poor boy. You and Matt are no match to the DLP. Your efforts are in vain.
Both CADRES and CAPA are saying the same thing but in different ways. Alex poll is suggesting UWP will win while Peter Wickham is suggesting the DLP will lose. Both are suggesting a 30% secret voters that the DLp hoping will vote for them but that is like believing in the rhyme that has the cow jumping over the moon, because all labor supporters are very loud and vocal. Those that are not talking are those that will vote UWP but they are afraid of being victimized. Another hope the DLP has is overseas voters. But that too is not sound because some who got tickets will vote UWP plus, UWP supporters in the Diaspora will come down in numbers to vote Skerrit out. So the call to yep supporters in the Diaspora is to buy their own tickets and come in large numbers to ensure our mission to deliver Dominica is accomplished. Do come one and come all to vote those rotten teeth’s out!
No one takes you seriously… You’re on DNO every month barking your support for buddy linton and you want Dominicans to take you or your polling seriously. You were are JOKE.
I didn’t need either Alex Bruno nor Peter Wickham to tell me what is going on on the ground. After all Da is small, the population is small and the campaign began before Maria in 2017 so that gave us enough time to hear and see on the ground. Before I listened to Alex Bruno I said UWP is on course to win anywhere between 13- 15 seats and Alex confirmed that with his 11 out of 12 constituencies. Alex left out 9 constituencies and as they stand now the DLP will win Paix Bouche, Possie, Colihault and Grandbay to take their tally to 5, while UWP will win 3 more to take them to 14 while Cottage and Soufriere could go to any party. But if we were to give both to the DLp that would only take them to a questionable 7 which would mean they need 4 more seats to win the election. So can anyone tell me where they see DLP winning four more? Yes I know they bringing down lots of Diapora voters but I still don’t believe they can bring down enough to change the results because many will vote uwp
This is fake news and another scare tactic by a Alex Bruno. This poll is intended to instill a bit of fear in the supporters of the DLP. I think Dominicans are intelligent enough to know that this poll was conducted by an acolyte of the UWP. The result on Dec 6th will prove to show that ALex MIghtypawol is fake, needs more training and need to be more neutral.
Come on CADRES….This is how you should release a poll.
We are waiting on your comprehensive polls from polling the people…..SMH.
Thanks for sharing CAPA your recent poll!!!!
Lenpro you’re one of those simple minded people holding the country back. I am not a fanatic of any political party simply because that’s what weak minded people do… follow.
However from an intellectual standpoint i.e having put considerable thought into it. I would have to say that the past 20 years has not born any fruit of note.
Melvin hall airport is the same airport, canfield has fallen into disrepair. Roseau looks exactly the same with the addition of new bridges… I dont know why. I mean I could put 4 funnels in the same bottle same results
China has a foothold on Dominica, we’ve aligned ourselves with dictators. … place is an ancient mess.
Alex bruno’s poll was much more in depth and asked questions that gave you better insite into the mind of the voters in various constituencies.furthermore it has to be noted that a large percentage of the voters who claimed to be undecided probably stated so because they were afraid to be victimized for their political affiliations. Therefore a majority of those so called “undecided” are very well supporters of the UWP who just chose not to reveal it.lets be real the DLP has been in power for 19 years, its very obvious those undecideds have seen for themselves the ineptitude of the ruling party.
This is not what I am seeing in the ground by far measure and give little credibility to it. The UWP is going to be Skerrit-washed in two weeks and this awkward poll flys in the face of everything political in Dominica. I guess I can post a document with pictures and percentages and make claim to ground responses to that effect. Alex Bruno has much to explain and the voting will put the final nail in his claim to credibility.
Mr. Volley, at the end of your pedestrian comments you sometimes end with Judge Herbert Volley. Just a gentle reminder. The correct thing should be Disgraced Former Judge Herbert Volley.
Alex, then go ask Lennox what the hell is his problem? We know that your polling is not honest. Because the leader of the UWP knows that he will win the up coming election, he would not behaving in such manner.
@Lenpro. Of course it would be irresponsible for Lennox not to have a problem knowing Skerrit is planning to bring in illegal voters to rig the election. Even if he Lennox(UWP) is winning on the ground.
Just apply a little bit of common sense you will be ok.
If Uncle Skerrit planned on having a fair election then UWP would win however we all know he will have boatloads and plane loads coming down to vote under dead people’s name, among other coco makak.
@ Lenpro
Stop bursting your red blood vessel bro..PMH will not be able to help you, because DLP has neglected the health of the nation. It will take patriot Linton and his solid team to resussicate health care again.
By the way DLP has no plan for Dominica’s development..This is just a gang of “sack weigh teeth”!
Skerrit
Whey is di money?
Whey is di money?
Whey is di money?
explain “such manner”.
I know it’s absolutely foreign for many Dominicans supporting the DLP to come to grips with the ways of an honest man.
Asking for electoral reform is something that will benefit the entire country for years to come, whether UWP (not Lennox) wins or loses the election. That doesn’t dictate whether the Oppositon (not merely UWP) should continue to agitate for reform. Learn the difference please!!.. We as a nation must strive to beome more mature in our political thinking.
Lenpro, Alex conducted his poll and published the result. Where is your poll? The same way every dog has an …hole, everyone has an opinion, you you are free to give your opinion but where is your poll?
I’m not about to criticize your comments but I would suggest that you remember a mind is a terrible thing to waste therefor you need to do some research about the rights of Electoral Reform and the very first thing to ask yourself why Dominica is the only one in the OECS that’s without it, do that body of folks rather see the people of Dominica suffer they don’t care
They know what Roosevelt Skerrit is doing to the people is wrong so why aren’t they insisting that he follow the law like all other Islands, or are they afraid to speak with him about his behavior. So the people have a right to exhale.. OECS do your job especially A’gua PM who I believe is the chairman and stop your negative feedback
MOOMOO electoral reform has nothing to do with knowing who will win, winning or not we need electoral reform, that is the right thing to do, that is the honorable thing to do, we must have it.
Much more comprehensive and sensible poll than that of Cadres. More relevant questions asked more useful responses obtained, a much better parameter, I think.
Ras B Stop smoking Fake weed your ball head Rasta rale Poll 21 DLP
What was his predictions for the last elections in DA and Antigua? Anyone who believes that L L is more popular than Skerrit needs their heads to be check and lacks credibility?
Of course Skerrit is popular than LL, because Skerrit is a far over 19 years in government and he has failed and corrupted and abused our people with nefarious fake Red Clinic and have money out there for these people for his own fame, not our Dominica. Skerrit has no develop plans. Skerrit knows absolutely nothing of Socio-economic development. The only developmental plan Skerrit has is to abuse and fool our people with this fraudulent Red Cininc and nonsense illiterate talk about nothing. Look at Skerrit now, my people, at his face. He is desperate, he is unable to match that of Hon. Linton, the in coming Prime Minister, we say goodbye to the failed Odd Minister on his way out, that is Skerrit must get the hell out of our Dominica. Skerrit has nothing to offer our people, it is pretty obvious to see. As the sting shows that Skerrit is a loser and he will do anything to attempt to win us over, but he will not. Our people had enough of the Bobol abusive Labour and failed Skerrit. He go
I would love to see that happen. And would love to see how they would treat Dominica when another hurricane come through. WOKERS WILL NEVER WIN AN ELECTION IN DOMINICA.
Every meeting of the DLP we see former supporters of UWP taking the LABOUR stage .To suggest FELIX ,Monell,Bazil,George,Soso can win is FAKE NEWS.In ROSEAU CENTRAL in 2009 Prevost won by 3 votes.In 2014 Isaac won by 65 votes.If DLP supporters turn out to vote SOSO is dead meat.Since UWP formed in 1988 and 6 elections later they have NEVER received 44% of votes.In 11 constituencies DLP has UWP,in 2014 by over 250 votes(15 seats)UWP has only won 2 of 6 above 250.Ground work says UWP is losing BAD