The results of a poll conducted in twelve (12) electoral constituencies in Dominica by The Caribbean Agency for Political Advancement (CAPA) show the United Workers Party (UWP) leading in eleven of those constituencies.
The poll, which CAPA says was a focused opinion poll designed to gauge the electability of political party candidates, was conducted between November 2 and November 16, 2019, on a sample size which was a little under 1.5% of registered voters in each of the areas polled.
The twelve (12) crucial constituencies (based on past and emerging trends) which were polled are La Plaine, Morne Jaune, Castle Bruce, Wesley, Roseau Valley, Roseau Central, Salybia, St. Joseph, Mahaut, Petite Savanne, Vielle Case and Marigot.
Managing Director of CAPA, Alex Bruno who presented the results of the survey via video conference from Miami this morning, said Vieille Case and Marigot were selected because they are the seats held by leaders of the dominant parties – Prime Minister, Roosevelt Skerrit of the Dominica Labour Party (DLP) and the Leader of the Opposition, Lennox Linton of the United Workers Party (UWP).
The poll found that respondents generally believe that elections results will favour the DLP with 34% stating that the incumbent will win. However, in response to the question which political party candidate will you vote for at the upcoming general elections? 46% declared that they will vote for the opposition UWP. 36% said DLP and 18% said they would not vote for either of the political parties.
According to Bruno, 47% of respondents believe that Linton and the UWP present the better plan for people and the future development of the country, while 40% responded in favour of Roosevelt Skerrit and the DLP.
Bruno stated that 49% of the respondents believe that the DLP should not continue to serve as the majority party in the government of Dominica, while 46% believe they should. He said five per cent of those polled were either unsure or they chose to remain neutral.
The CAPA pollster reported that UWP and DLP both enjoyed similar ratings on the question for which political party candidate did you vote at the 2014 general elections. 37% said UWP, 35% responded in favour of DLP and 28% of the respondents gave no response.
When asked, which political party leader is more believable when they message, 40% of respondents said Lennox Linton and 37% said Roosevelt Skerrit with 28% saying that neither of the leaders are/were believable.
On the matter of voting, 71% of respondents said they will be voting on December 6; 12% said that they will not vote and 17% were unsure about casting ballots.
Bruno revealed that the most resounding response in the entire survey was given to the reform question: ‘Do you believe there is need for electoral reform?’ 72% said yes, 4% said no and 14% were uncertain.
Youth unemployment was measured as 63% with adult unemployment at 38%. The National Employment Program (NEP) emerged as a significant source of youth employment.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9%.
Figures on respondents opinions on expected constituency by constituency voting.