Dominica to experience an increase in rainfall from June to November this year

Weather Forecaster Annie Carrette-Joseph has announced that models are indicating that Dominica will see an increase in rainfall from June to November this year. She made the announcement during a forum held at the Dominica Public Service Union (DPSU) building on Wednesday.

“So, for June, July, and August and also for September, October, and November models are indicating that it’s going to be wetter than usual… and that is, without the frequent occurrences of the Sahara Dust,” she said. “Also we look at the wet days, to scenario A. Usually, we get about 49 to 68. The forecast is likely to exceed 68 days.”

According to her, models are indicating an increase in the frequency of wet days, seven-day wet spells, as well as very wet spells.

She continued, “And then the seven-day wet spell which is seven consecutive wet days or days when your rainfall amount is 1 millimetre and more.”

Carrette-Joseph added, “Usually we get up to about two to seven and the forecast is calling for up to about 10 of those episodes. And the seven-day very wet, we are expecting to get about two to eight of those.”

“What tends to happen during these times is frequent disruptions of outdoor activity due to frequent rainfall events, increase in surface wetness and this could produce an environment that’s conducive for pests and diseases to thrive, although it limits your bushfire potential,” she explained.

Furthermore, she mentioned Scenario B, that is when there is frequent Saharan dust, “you will see less frequent wet days, increasing chances for dry spells during times when you have a high dust concentration in the area.”

Carrette-Joseph pointed out that looking at the flash flood potential with excessive rainfall for June, July, and August,  there is “an extremely high flash flood potential for Dominica.”

Annie Carrette-Joseph


She went on to state, “at least five excessive rainfall events where you have rainfall amounts of 30 millimetres within 24 are expected at Canefield and about 8 at Douglas Charles. And these excessive rainfall events could trigger flash floods and right now we are at extremely high confidence with this.”

However, Carrette-Joseph explained, “if you have Scenario B where the Saharan Dust here is present you are going to see less in 10 rainfall activities.”

Meanwhile, she revealed that currently there are no drought concerns for Dominica.

“Dry conditions that we would have received during the dry seasons, we expect that this dryness will be alleviated as we move into the wet season as we expect an increase in rainfall activities,” she explained.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on, Saturday, June 1. Based on predictions by forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), we may be in for a rough ride. NOAA warns that there is an 85 percent probability that the season will have an above-average number of storms and their May outlook included the highest number of named storms.

They predicted that 2024 will see 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.

An average season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Several factors are behind such a busy season this year. According to the forecasters, they include near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear.

While NOAA forecasters predict the number of named storms, they don’t predict landfalls, making it impossible to say where any of these storms will strike. Hence, authorities are stressing the importance of preparation.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Copyright 2012 Dominica News Online, DURAVISION INC. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or distributed.

Disclaimer: The comments posted do not necessarily reflect the views of and its parent company or any individual staff member. All comments are posted subject to approval by We never censor based on political or ideological points of view, but we do try to maintain a sensible balance between free speech and responsible moderating.

We will delete comments that:

  • contain any material which violates or infringes the rights of any person, are defamatory or harassing or are purely ad hominem attacks
  • a reasonable person would consider abusive or profane
  • contain material which violates or encourages others to violate any applicable law
  • promote prejudice or prejudicial hatred of any kind
  • refer to people arrested or charged with a crime as though they had been found guilty
  • contain links to "chain letters", pornographic or obscene movies or graphic images
  • are off-topic and/or excessively long

See our full comment/user policy/agreement.


  1. Putin
    June 24, 2024

    No sh.. Sherlock that happens every year

  2. Roger Burnett
    June 20, 2024

    I give Annie Carrette-Joseph credit. Her presentation sets the benchmark for clearly relaying information.

Post a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

:) :-D :wink: :( 8-O :lol: :-| :cry: 8) :-? :-P :-x :?: :oops: :twisted: :mrgreen: more »

 characters available