The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already set records for being so active and forecasters are saying that there may be more storms than names. This, as the tenth named storm -Josephine- developed over the Atlantic yesterday.
In an average season, it would take only 21 named storms before all the names on the Atlantic list-determined ahead of time by the World Meteorological Organization-are exhausted. But if 25 storms do end up forming in 2020, meteorologists would need to turn after Wilfred to the Greek alphabet — Alpha, Beta, Gamma and so on.
Tropical Storm Josephine, which is expected to increase over the weekend has shattered the early-season formation record for the J-named storm in the basin by nine days. The former record belonged to Jose, which developed on August 22, 2005.
Prior to Josephine, the 2020 hurricane season has already left its mark on the history books multiple times so far with storms Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias all setting early-season formation records. Except for Cristobal, the storms bumped off record-setters from the 2005 season. The prior earliest C-named storm was Colin from 2016.
Late last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its annual August update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, initially issued in May and forecasters warned of the potential for an “extremely active” hurricane season in the Atlantic.
Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the te named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5). However, this updated outlook released calls for a total of 19 to 25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7 to 11 are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including three to six that could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This update covers the entire hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and therefore includes the ten named storms to date.
Acting senior Met Officer Marshall Alexander says the updated outlook now calls for an 85 percent chance or an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season and therefore is advising the public “to be prepared and ready to take action when necessary.”
“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its history of hurricane outlooks. The Dominica Met service will continue to provide credible and timely information to the public to ensure that the nation is well informed so as to make the best decisions leading to the safety of life and property,” he stated.
Alexander pointed out, however, that NOAA’s hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast as landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.
The Dominica Meteorological Service is, therefore, encouraging residents to keep COVID-19 in mind when making preparations and during evacuations.
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