During the last few months, there has been many discussions about the migrants in Dominica, particularly those from China and Haiti. My comments here will deal primarily with the Haitian Community. We will recall that during the administration of the United Workers Party a scheme was set up to bring Haitians to Dominica to work for banana farmers. The Haitian migrants came to Dominica at the behest of the farmers who convinced the Government that the slide in the fortunes of the Banana industry was due to lack of labour. From their point of view, only the importation of a new stock of foreign labour could save the industry and their livelihoods, since labour was not available in Dominica. This attempt at importing Haitian workers for work on banana farmers was not a success and the banana Industry eventually collapsed by the beginning of this century.
In 2004, Aristide was removed from power through unorthodox means. This triggered a mass exodus of Haitians and Dominica received its first wave of thousands of “voluntary “Haitian immigrants. Surprisingly there was little negative sentiment towards these newcomers. It would be true to say that Dominicans empathised greatly with the Haitians and many persons were of the view that the Haitians were an asset to the country in many ways particularly in the agricultural sector. The biggest contribution that the Haitian migrants brought to Dominica is quite literally themselves – their bodies.
As we are all aware, the population of the country is small and has been tending to decline for the last 30 or more years due to a combination of negative net migration (more persons leaving than entering the country to reside) and a steady decline in births accompanied by a slow but steady rise in deaths. The table below shows the population situation from 1995 to 2019. We will notice that during the period net outmigration was highest in 1996 and tended generally to decrease over the years. In 2014, Dominica recorded its first year of positive net migration (more persons immigrated to Dominica than emigrated from Dominica) of 1421 persons.
In 2017, the country recorded its lowest number of births at 659 and its highest number of deaths at 1066. In that year Dominica experienced negative natural increase of 407, (407 persons more died than were born). In 2017 the statistics noted the largest negative migration of 3407 for the period 1995 to 2019. The estimated end of year population of 67,565 was the lowest calculated during the period.
In 2018 and 2019 both the number of births and inward migration increased. In 2018 and 2019, births recovered to 724 and 812 respectively while net inward migration increased to 3789 and 1283. What accounted for the increases of inward migration and births? Are they linked? Yes, they are linked. Although the medical authorities have the data on the place of birth of mothers giving birth at the Hospital from at least November of 2019, they have refused to make this data available to the author. However relying on Radio Neg and my own observations when visiting the maternity ward we know that a large proportion of births at the hospital during the last five years or so have been to foreign-born mothers. Haitians are the largest immigrant group in Dominica and the indication is that Haitian –born mothers are also giving birth in larger numbers than any other immigrant group.
Dominica’s society is now undergoing a significant population shift whereby the percentage of immigrants in the population is steadily increasing and the expanding percentage of births to immigrant mothers clearly indicates that in 20 to 30 years from now the makeup of the population will change fundamentally. Given that Dominican-born mothers and fathers are not replacing themselves, we can predict that by 2040 or thereabouts immigrants and their descendants will populate the island in the main. We are now in the transition phase of this demographic shift. Already there are some rumblings of xenophobia being displayed towards immigrants.
TABLE 1. TOTAL POPULATION ANALYSED BY BIRTHS, DEATHS AND | ||||||||
NET MIGRATION 1995 – 2019 | ||||||||
YEAR | BIRTHS | DEATHS | NATURAL INCREASE | NET MIGRATION | TOTAL INCREASE | END OF YEAR POPULATION | MEAN POPULATION | |
1995 | 1,501 | 584 | 917 | -699 | 218 | 72,712 | 72,603 | |
1996 | 1,426 | 583 | 843 | -1,288 | -445 | 72,267 | 72,490 | |
1997 | 1,340 | 513 | 827 | -995 | -168 | 72,099 | 72,183 | |
1998 | 1,236 | 595 | 641 | -756 | -115 | 71,984 | 72,042 | |
1999 | 1,293 | 618 | 675 | -1,013 | -338 | 71,646 | 71,815 | |
2000 | 1,199 | 511 | 688 | -897 | -209 | 71,443 | 71,544 | |
2001 | 1,216 | 510 | 706 | -894 | -188 | 70,401 | 70,922 | |
2002 | 1,081 | 594 | 487 | -526 | -39 | 70,362 | 70,382 | |
2003 | 1,056 | 557 | 499 | -522 | -23 | 70,340 | 70,352 | |
2004 | 1,066 | 557 | 509 | -355 | 154 | 70,494 | 70,417 | |
2005 | 1,009 | 489 | 520 | -381 | 139 | 70,633 | 70,564 | |
2006 | 1,035 | 538 | 497 | -381 | 116 | 70,751 | 70,692 | |
2007 | 904 | 567 | 337 | -381 | -44 | 70,707 | 70,729 | |
2008 | 964 | 545 | 419 | -381 | 38 | 70,745 | 70,726 | |
2009 | 943 | 559 | 384 | -381 | 3 | 70,748 | 70,747 | |
2010 | 933 | 579 | 354 | -381 | -27 | 70,712 | 70,730 | |
2011 | 944 | 592 | 352 | -493 | -141 | 69,234 | 69,973 | |
2012 | 951 | 603 | 348 | 142 | 490 | 69,724 | 69,479 | |
2013 | 931 | 630 | 301 | -433 | -132 | 69,592 | 69,658 | |
2014 | 858 | 590 | 268 | 1,421 | 1,689 | 71,281 | 70,437 | |
2015 | 861 | 664 | 197 | -389 | -192 | 71,089 | 71,185 | |
2016 | 796 | 686 | 110 | -773 | -663 | 71,379 | 71,234 | |
2017 | 659 | 1,066 | -407 | -3,407 | -3,814 | 67,565 | 69,472 | |
2018 | 724 | 602 | 122 | 3,769 | 3,891 | 71,456 | 69,511 | |
2019 | 812 | 546 | 266 | 1,283 | 1,549 | 73,005 | 72,231 | |
Source: Ministry of Health, Immigration Department The Government Registry and Central Statistics Office | ||||||||
Note: For 2011, End of Year Population is adjusted from Census Population (institutional) to include births, deaths | ||||||||
and net migration after the May 14, 2011 Census date. |
The authorities need to manage this transition carefully to minimize social friction between the local population and the immigrant groups. We should also formulate an immigration programme that is anchored in a thoughtful immigration policy that recognizes that immigration is a necessary plank in our quest for economic development. Within this policy, the Government needs to set a societal goal of building ethnic harmony. There should be no Chinatown, little Haiti or Pequeño Santo Domingo.
The answer to the question posed in the title of this piece is that yes the Haitians are part of the solution to our most pressing economic problem: The decline in the total population and its increasing age.
- The author had commenced this paper before the Statement by the Prime Minister on the need to increase the population.
About the Author:
Mc Carthy MARIE was born in Wesley Dominica. He graduated from the Cave Hill Campus of the University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and History. He pursued Graduate Studies at the St. Augustine Campus of the University of the West Indies where he obtained the MSc in Agricultural economics. His publications include, “Agricultural Diversification in a Small Economy : The Case of Dominica,” and La Crise de la Natalité et Ses Conséquences Économiques à la Dominique – In Économie et droit des Affaires de la Caraïbe et la Guyane Tome 2– sous la Direction de René Kiminou, Université des Antilles–Guyane Martinique
He is also well versed in Copyright law and administration.
MARIE is married to the Singer OPHELIA.
It does not take a rocket scientist to discern that making Dominica a de-facto Sino-Haitian province stands to create more problems than solve. Apparently, many Dominicans naively believe that a continuous UNCONTROLLED influx of unvetted foreigners will fix their economic woes. History have repeatedly proven that this formula is precarious at best and a brewing recipe for social disaster.
Fear of being mislabeled as xenophobic have had natives encouraging or tolerating this experiment. What likely is that your progeny may inherit a place where they are at the bottom of the social strata and will keep running away until Dominica becomes totally non-‘Dominican’.
It is a fact that there are many Dominicans living abroad, but due to their limited numbers they won’t DOMINATE or undermine the social matrix of any country. Furthermore, the MAJORITY of Dominicans migrate legally. Remember IMMIGRATION is only GOOD when it is legal, well managed and CONTROLLED.
I have not understood neither the title nor the content of the article. The Haitian question? What is the question? Was Haitian migration supposed to be a solution to any problem? I may have missed quite a bit but before the Haitian question, please ensure that the Dominican question is answered first. Why do so many Dominicans migrate? Migration began long ago; Guadeloupe, St. Martin, Antigua, United States. Yes, they go to other people’s countries and have babies too!!! What is the question?? What was Haitians supposed to solve for Dominicans?? Were they supposed to grow the economy? Please explain the question and please explain its correlation to the article!
Please don’t forget our people, who left in droves for Canada and the U.K.
It is also true as a society becomes less agrarian and women become more educated and enter the workforce, the birth rate declines.
There are two things that are obvious to me and I am not a scientist.
The first one is that we have a very high unemployment rate among our own local population. You only have to look at NEP for a start. NEP would not exist if we had a healthy employment situation. So why should we encourage the inflow of foreigners to only make matters worse.
Secondly, we must not pretend that most Haitians come here to stay but use our island as a transit to go to go illegally to other countries like Guadeloupe, Martinique and St. Maarten. I don’t blame them because it is our government that provides the opportunity for them to do so. But this whole thing keeps our wages low and our youth unemployed. We should provide quality skills training for our people and create jobs instead of preaching that false mantra of, oh but they are our brothers and sisters, we must help them when we charge them U.S.$. 400 in cash when they come in and tell them they’ll get it back when they leave legally…
This is a very unfortunate title, considering the topic.
A very informed and objective analysis of the “birth and inward migration” development in Dominica as well as the demographic prognosis with the recommended proactive measures to the authorities. Very commendable job Mr Marie.
since hurricane Maria in 2017, there was a mass migration out of Dominica… so how is it that from 2017 to 2018 shows an increase in population when in fact the population decreased due to persons fleeing from the ravages of Hurricane Maria.. to date it is seen that the population has not totally recovered which leaves one to believe that those presented statistics are totally false…
I thought the author would made a correlation between economic growth of a country and then reference to population growth base on a model of more births and inward migration.
Any developing country which is showing economic growth will attract migrants and its child bearing age population will give births once they have the economic well-being to do so.
Dominica have not recorded any significant economic growth in the past 20 years there therefore mothers and fathers can’t replace themselves and secondly Dominica is not attracting migrants because of economic growth, we all know the attraction is because Dominica had s well established human trafficking trade.
You are right, they are PART of the solution but I might add, in an effort to DELAY the advent of having to ” manage this situation carefully” the government should grow the ECONOMY so as to ENABLE Dominicans, generally, and women in particular, to have more children.
I also noted that you did not attempt to explain, nor advance explanations/ reasons/ possibilities for the decline in our birthrate.
It’s also noteworthy, that you state that the introduction of Haitians by the United Workers Party in an effort to remedy the “labour shortage” in the banana industry, was unsuccessful.
Notwithstanding, you, at the same time mentioned that after the removal of Aristide, Dominicans surprisingly showed empathy towards the “second wave” of Haitians and “it’s true to say”…… asset … especially in the AGRICULTURAL SECTOR. (Emphasis mine)
HOTEP!