2018 Hurricane Season begins; always be prepared authorities warn

A satellite view of Hurricane Maria which devastated Dominica last September. Photo: The Naval Research Laboratory/ NOAA

The Atlantic Hurricane Season extends from June 1 to November 30 and the forecast for this year is for a 75-percent chance of being a near- or above-normal season.

Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is predicting a 70-percent likelihood of:

– 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)

– 5 to 9 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)

– 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

Two of the main factors that contributed to the predictions are the possibility of a weak El Nino developing and near-average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

These factors are set upon a backdrop of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development and have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.

Dominica was severely impacted by Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Maria in 2017.

This serves as a strong reminder of the level of disruption these systems can inflict on society and even more so of the critical need to mitigate against the hazards posed by tropical cyclones. Many continue to focus on the intensity of a system in order to take preparedness action.

Given the uncertainties involved in predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones and rainfall amounts, the key message to the public is the need to always be prepared.

Be advised that the threat from a rapidly intensifying system, as in the case of Maria, will reduce preparedness time in the short term.

Therefore, while predictions are important, warning messages should always prompt a protection response, regardless of intensity forecasts, as it only takes one system to disrupt lives.

The public is being reminded to implement plans and activities to protect against significant impacts from flooding, including seawater intrusion, landslides, rock falls and high winds.

Activities such as clearing blocked drains and waterways around homes, removing overhanging tree branches, safeguarding important documents, building an emergency supply kit for your home to include medications and installing storm shutters are all actions that can reduce the level of impacts on life and property.

Stay informed at all times by listening to warnings and other information provided by trusted and relevant authorities.

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Names

Alberto (Subtropical Storm Alberto formed May 25)

Leslie

Beryl

Michael

Chris

Nadine

Debby

Oscar

Ernesto

Patty

Florence

Rafael

Gordon

Sara

Helene

Tony

Isaac

Valerie

Joyce

William

Kirk

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5 Comments

  1. Hurricane Skerrit
    June 1, 2018

    @ Penville you said a set of Penville people names. I am not from the Penville area but only one name I know is from Penville and boy she is a storm by herself. But what I do realize is that several of the names are very close associates of Skerrit’, and that to me spells trouble. I see Tony, Chris, Helen, Burke, Isaac, Sara and to a lesser extent Nadine. We talking about real trouble. If according to you a lot of the names are Penville people and knowing how Penville is a Skerrit stronghold, Dominica should be very afraid. Imagine hurricane “Tony” hitting Dominica.

  2. Floridian Diaspora
    June 1, 2018

    This is an excellent informative article except for one thing; the hurricane’s name that begins with S should be named skeritt instead of Sara. Plus we need not worry about an above average season because according to Dr Punjabi we are climate resilient. No weather pattern that is formed against us cannot prosper. The glow show bridge is resilient, our roads and bridges are most resilient, all our infrastructure (like the house that fell in roaeau) is climate resilient, even the food we eat is climate resilient!!!!! Soon we’ll be ********** out resiliency on those gold plated fancy toilets that our wonderful prime minister or our prime mistake rather built for us. Aren’t we glad to be the first climate resilient country in the world? We need not fear no more

  3. Ibo France
    June 1, 2018

    Another hurricane season is upon us and most people, and the country in general, are woefully unprepared for even the weakest storms. The government recently announced that they are in the process of putting plans in place. Can anyone defend such callous irresponsible behavior and obvious ineptitude? A government’s first and most important responsibility is to protect its citizens and legal residents. If an administration is incapable of doing this, then it should not occupy the seat of government. PERIOD!

  4. As I see It
    June 1, 2018

    Dominica is once again caught with pants down, just as we were caught in 2015, by Erika and 2017 by Maria. In fact in 2015 Skerrit himself got blocked coming from Macau. Yes, Skerrit is very ready for an election as the purchase of Joseph Isaac would confirm. But has far as hurricane is concern all I can say is, ALAS!
    Here are two quotes from the Grenada meeting this week that really describes Dominica and really I don’t know why they did not call Dominica by name because one would have to be blind to not see they were referring to Skerrit:
    “Countries need to focus on preparing for increasingly ferocious storms rather than just reacting to them after they strike.” Here is another one from Dr. Kieth Mitchell himself:

    “Keith Mitchell, prime minister of Grenada, which was devastated by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, urged nations to tackle poverty and strengthen social safety nets in order to better prepare populations for the impacts of disasters.”

  5. Penville city
    June 1, 2018

    Aset of Penville ppl names we again… :-D :-D

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