Weather experts, who gathered in Dominica for a two-day Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), are warning the region that it should expect an unusually wet season and the possibilities of more hurricanes this year than in the past five years.
Speaking at the opening of the forum on Monday, Climatologist with the Dominica Meteorologist Service, (DMS) Annie Carrette-Joseph who presented the Wet/Hurricane Season Outlook for 2016, said drought condition will gradually be alleviated during the wet season across the region and “surface water reservoirs will recharge, there will be soil moisture replenishment and an increased in river flow.”
“The forecast for June, July, August indicates that there will be a 52 percent chance of La Niña conditions, in other words, there is a 52 percent chance that La Niña will evolve by June, July, August and remain through to 2016,” she stated.
La Niña is a cooling of the water in the equatorial Pacific, which occurs at irregular intervals, and is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns, and this, Carrette-Joseph said, could increase chances of a wetter dry season and that “this could be similar to dry season of 2011, where some said there was no dry season”.
She stated that wet conditions will appear in many places and “where it has not already started, the wet season may start abruptly in June”.
Implications will include conditions that favour mosquito breeding “and there is a higher chance of extreme rainfall than in a usual wet season.”
The outlook, prepared by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), in collaboration with the meteorological services across the region, warned of extremely wet spells occurring with “serious potential for flash flooding and landslides.”
According to NOAA, there is a 70% probability that there will be 10 to 16 named storms. There is a 25% chance of that being below normal, 45% chance of normal and 30% chance of above normal. 4 to 8 are expected to become hurricanes with 1 to 4 intense hurricanes.
Last weekend Dominica was lashed by heavy rains which caused flooding in many sections of the island.
The Lord hates a dishonest scale!
Clean up the judiciary or else the country is begging for disasters.
when a country turns its back on justice it turns its back on God’s protection, leaving satan free to bring disasters.
Father we just ask that you show us your mercy
awww see the laronde river in laplaine.bring back memories
Cameron when you digging a pit for others, make sure you dig one for yourself. Words have piwers to perform. That was a very nasty statement you idiot.
Will wash all the corrupt leaders and all the wickedness from the country.
yes because it only rains on their houses.
I hope that history isn’t about to repeat itself this hurricane season. Remember in late 2014 for pre-election events money was flowing like the river Nile from king pharaoh to fly in international stars to entertain his peasants only to be deemed broke a few months later when Erika passed? So while money is being wasted by this inefficient, ungodly, immoral lamblike beast down in Soufriere, let us hope that the CBI funded “rainy day account” that Dr. Punjab said he was going to set up is well stashed with the majority of the alleged $124 million from passport sales to repair any potential road damages this weather might bring. No matter how bad the weather might be, the fact is solid well designed infrastructure will always lead to less damage upon passage of a disaster. Unfortunately for the peasants in Dominica, the only thing that is structured properly is a citizenship with no investment program (CWI instead of CBI) and a handout stipend plan. Labor ka travay!!!
I understand you do not support the government, however I don’t see the relevance of this to the article.
DNO I believe it is 12 named storms and not 12 hurricanes forecast for this year as you indicated in your one before the last paragraph. However, I stand corrected.
Clearing the river beds, ravines, culverts, and drains need to be a year round process. Sediment from river beds can either be used as levees on the river banks or beach material for beach renourishment. More rain means more erosion and addition to the sediment clogged channels. If we aint open them up the the rivers will do thier thing and we have no control hence flooding and damage. Dregging should have started right after erika. New sediment meet old sediment, river will cut new path and its a chain event from there. We get the front row seats for geomorphology.