An increase in rainfall events and amounts is possible from April into May (medium to high confidence). Increased frequency of wet and extremely wet days and spells are likely (medium to high confidence).
These conditions are expected to continue well throughout the upcoming wet season (June to November) thus increasing the chances for life-threatening hazards such as flash floods, landslides and rockfalls across the island.
Heat concerns are expected to begin as early as April and continue well into October/November 2024 leading to yet another year where heat stress and other heat-related complications are possible.
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to come to an early start with higher chances for above-normal activities. What drives these conditions?
✓ Recent observations showed a transition from El Niño to ENSO Neutral conditions in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the April-May-June 2024 season (79% chance) with increasing chances of La Niña evolving during the June-July-August season (55% chance). These phases usually lead to wetter conditions across the Eastern Caribbean
and an active Atlantic Hurricane Season.
✓ Additionally, warmer than usual Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) continue to be maintained across the Caribbean Sea and Tropical North Atlantic Ocean. This is expected to continue during the upcoming season. Warmer than usual SSTs often result in warmer than usual air temperatures, a more humid environment, and an increased frequency of
rainfall events which could be extreme. It also provides fuel to tropical cyclones which could lead to the intensification of systems.
Considering the aforementioned, the Dominica Meteorological Service wishes to advise the general public and all climate-sensitive sectors to begin all the necessary plans and preparations for a wetter and hotter-than-usual period.
Flooding and landslides usually occur with extreme and prolonged rainfall events. Also, hurricane preparedness activities should be done as early as possible to minimize last-minute rush.
Attention should be paid to the daily updates issued by the Dominica Meteorological Service. The service also provides a weekly sub-seasonal forecast posted on the website (www.weather.gov.dm/climate/climate-forecast/sub-seasonal-forecast). This forecast provides information on weekly rainfall exceedance and temperature probabilities for a duration of two weeks. This can then be enhanced with the daily weather forecast.
The Met Service will continue to provide up-to-date information which we hope will help in timely decision making which will help save lives and properties.
Issued by: The Climatological Department Dominica Meteorological Service
Let’s all hope for the best despite the dire predictions of the weather experts. We are already living under food stressed, economic depressed conditions. To be affected by the devastation of other additional natural phenomena will be calamitous.
May Jehovah put a protective shield around this country from all harm and dangers that lurk around us.
People like you, and others like you, with you constant barrage of negative thoughts and comments are a curse to Dominica.
I pray for you and Dominica every day.
He’ll tell you that he saw it coming and he had already told that to some people “juss the other day.”
If the prediction proves true, the ongoing land movement at Antrim will be almost certainly be exacerbated with serious consequences for the Imperial Highway.
An eleven page alert I submitted to government a year ago has been totally ignored.
The writing is on the wall!
I wonder what the weather man for UWP Thompson Fontaine have to say about that.
He says to make sure the insurance on you hair and red nose are paid and to hold on to them real tight, lest they get blown away by the wind
