Forecasters call for preparedness as NOAA predicts above average hurricane season

With the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season a little more than a week away, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have predicted that there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season and have called for preparedness.

NOAA, the US federal agency in charge of weather and climate predictions, released its outlook for this year’s season at a press conference on Thursday morning at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana, just outside of New Orleans.

The forecasters predict there will be between 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Six to 10 of those are expected to strengthen into hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and three to five could become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

The agency said there are several factors that favor the development of tropical cyclones including higher-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.

It also said there are advanced models and systems in place to monitor the weather but pointed out everyone should be prepared.

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” NOAA’s National Weather Service

Director Ken Graham said at the press conference. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

The NOAA is confident that its forecast is accurate because last year it predicted an above-average number of storms, with between 8 and 13 hurricanes. The 2024 Hurricane Season ended with 11 hurricanes, five of which turned into major hurricanes. Acting NOAA administrator, Laura Grimm, said last year’s forecast “was right on the money,” within NOAA’s predicted range.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 until November 30, with peak activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October.

Meanwhile, forecasters are keeping an eye on the first tropical wave of 2025.

“The first westward-moving tropical wave of the season is in the far eastern Atlantic,” the Dominica Meteorological Service said in a statement on Thursday morning.

“No development expected at this time. It could reach the Lesser Antilles by early next week. We’re monitoring.”