In 2025, the China-Friendship Hospital — where virtually every birth in Dominica takes place — recorded 513 births. Let that number sink in. In 2007, when I first wrote about Dominica’s demographic crisis, I noted with alarm that 899 births that year was the smallest number ever recorded. We have since lost another 43% of our annual births.
We are not approaching a demographic crisis. We are living inside one.
The numbers tell a brutal story. In 2022, Dominica recorded 658 births and 777 deaths— a natural population deficit of 119 persons. In 2023, 657 births against 744 deaths.
More Dominicans are now dying each year than are being born. This is not a projection or a warning about the future. It is the present reality of our nation.
A Crisis Hiding in Plain Sight
I published a detailed paper on this demographic implosion years ago. The data was clear, the trends were unmistakable, and the consequences were predictable. Primary school enrolment had already collapsed by 42% between 1995 and 2008. The Social Security system was paying out 68 cents in benefits for every dollar collected in
contributions by 2007. The farming population was aging rapidly, with the majority of farmers already over 60. Every sector of the economy was being hollowed out by the same underlying cause: we are running out of people.
The policy response has been, to put it charitably, inadequate. The discussion that should have happened has largely not happened. And so the crisis that was predictable has become the crisis that is upon us.
An Unlikely Opportunity
Into this demographic emergency has come an unexpected development. The United States government, under President Trump’s executive orders on deportations, has indicated that Dominica will be receiving deportees and refugees. The Prime Minister has acknowledged publicly — and correctly — that our population is too small. The
political circumstances are undoubtedly embarrassing for a sovereign nation to have its immigration flows shaped by Washington rather than Roseau. But embarrassment is a luxury we cannot afford to indulge when 513 babies were born here last year.
The critical question is not whether we receive these persons — that appears largely settled. The critical question is who we receive and in what composition. On this question, Dominica must exercise every ounce of diplomatic agency it possesses, because the composition of these arrivals will determine whether this situation becomes a demographic dividend or a social problem.
What We Must Ask For
The government must urgently advocate for two things in its negotiations with Washington. First, we should preferentially request families with children. This directly addresses our most acute need. Every family with two or three children that settles here partially offsets our birth deficit, refills a classroom seat, adds a future Social Security contributor, and builds a household with roots and stakes in our community. Families are far more likely than single individuals to integrate, to stay, to invest in their surroundings, and to become genuine Dominican citizens rather than transient residents.
Second, we should avoid receiving a disproportionate number of unattached single men. This is not a statement about the character of any individual. It is a recognition of a consistent pattern across Caribbean and global migration history: large concentrations of young unattached men without family anchors and without clear economic integration pathways create social pressures that small communities struggle to absorb.
Dominica’s crime statistics are already a concern. We do not need to compound the problem through a poorly composed influx.
History is instructive here. When Haitian nationals arrived in Dominica under difficult circumstances years ago, I argued then that we should view them not as a burden but as a potential demographic windfall — young, energetic people arriving precisely when we needed them most. The same logic applies now, but with one crucial difference: this
time we have a degree of advance notice and potentially some negotiating leverage over composition. That leverage must be used.
Small nations must be creative and unsentimental about their survival. We cannot afford the luxury of managing this situation purely as a diplomatic embarrassment to be minimised and moved past quickly. Diplomats and Foreign Affairs officials will naturally focus on optics. It is the responsibility of the Ministry of Finance and Planning— which understands the Social Security projections, the school population data, and the labour force numbers — to ensure that demographic strategy drives this decision, not public relations.
The Window Is Narrow
Decisions of this kind are made quickly at the diplomatic level. Once the composition of arrivals is set in motion, it is very difficult to restructure. The window for Dominica to exercise meaningful influence over who comes and under what terms is open right now. It will not remain open indefinitely.
Five hundred and thirteen births. That is where we are. Every family with children that settles here and builds a life is a partial answer to that number. We did not choose the circumstances that created this opportunity. But we can choose whether to seize it wisely or squander it through inaction and embarrassment.
The choice, for once, is ours.
Mc. Carthy Marie holds a B.A. and MSc. He is a researcher and commentator on Dominican economic and social policy, and host of the DNO podcast Factually Speaking.
We are the missing pieces to the Dominican 🇩🇲 puzzle. The grandchildren of Dominican 🇩🇲diaspora are even more important pieces to the puzzle it must be said and recognised. They have so much to offer this beautiful island 🏝 going forward
Children born abroad are not welcomed as citizens. I have 3 Dominican born grandparents yet I am not entitled to citizenship unless I buy it through the investment scheme. Welcoming those born in the diaspora should be considered. We are familiar with the culture and would love the opportunity to live and invest in our motherland.
uncle children are an exception. he have his kids born in the states and give them both dominican citizenship as well
Dominica’s demographic crisis is real, but the discussion is incomplete if it ignores the children and grandchildren of the Dominican diaspora. For decades Dominican migrants supported the country through remittances, investment and family ties. Many of their descendants would welcome the opportunity to live, work or invest in the country of their parents and grandparents. Yet those who try to regularise their status often face slow and confusing bureaucracy, even while the diaspora is publicly encouraged to contribute financially. If Dominica is serious about addressing population decline, it should make it easier for the grandchildren of Dominican migrants to obtain citizenship or long-term residency.
This country is cooked. Why even bother? People in stable relationships who can produce children choose to have only one or two children or in some cases no children. They spend their money travelling to other countries like the U.S. instead of in their country, yet they are some of the most vocal critics of the governments (both of Dominica and the U.S.)
We have a bunch of single people just living life with no care. Women especially have been completely brainwashed by social media. A lot of them are looking for high life – travel, party etc. They have high body counts at a young age which makes it more difficult for them to find long term partners and they only start caring about children once they are 35+ and past their prime. The men on the other hand are pacified by video games, drugs and porn and most don’t want to deal with the B.S. of modern women, other than to get sex.
Then we have shadowy groups like ASPIRE pushing an anti-natal agenda promoting abortion and LGBT…
Yes,but you will agree population is the amount of people living in Dominica.Retirning Dominicans,Chinese,Haitians,St.Lucians,Spanish,Jamaicans and more.If more people are dying than those that are being born in 20 years Dominica would be uninhabited.Very soon we are going to accept people deported from the USA,they too will be included in the population.Foreigners.
Dominicans have always endeavored to admire and appreciate our “little piece of rock” from afar where we have mostly settled into being law abiding and productive immigrants. Opting out for greener pastures and better opportunities is definitely not unique to Dominicans.
Most people forcibly deported to Dominica from the United States (who are already used to living in the U.S.) will almost immediately cross illegally to Martinique or Guadeloupe and claim asylum in the European Union. I would be very surprised if more than a handful stay in Dominica.
If Dominica truly wants to attract migrant families, there are plenty of well-educated and hard-working people in various African countries who would be very keen to resettle in a peaceful and functional English speaking country with a decent public education and health system.
The reality of a demographic emergency is that there is no “silver bullet” solution. The late Michael Douglas, MP for Portsmouth, once famously remarked to the House of Assembly that Dominica’s primary export was Dominicans.
Given the current birth and death rates, do we have specific data on how many citizens are migrating to settle in neighboring countries? Furthermore, what incentives are being implemented to encourage Dominicans to remain home? And, as for Mr. Trump’s Executive Order on deportations, only time will tell ( it is not a silver bullet either). Perhaps it is time to shift our focus toward adapting to the reality of a smaller population.
We can start easily and painlessly. Completely slash to a bare minimum the whole work permit / citizenship process. someone want to come here and work … grant them immediate access and social security number. consider scrapping the work permit system altogether. Someone applies for citizenship , grant it with minimum fuss. At ports of entry .. grant visa free access to EVERYONE. Simply open up the country. Yes you need to know who is here.. but technology allows you to do this easily. In other words we need to be as welcoming as possible rather than the current driving people into the dark economy and creating false and self defeating barriers at ports of entry
An excellent article.
You have steadily been a voice of reason in a crucial area of discussion that seems a vast dessert by comparison to the effort made by most.
I’m curious are there any policies you would currently suggest or favour?
Apart from this “opportunity” has anything changed in terms of what you think would best address this crisis?
Actually I think Calibishie Warrior’s proposal is in lie with my own thoughts.
Mark
Calibishie Warrior’s proposal should be encouraged, however it needs to be tweaked considerably to have some safe guards in place. You cannot give blanket visa free access to everyone. This would attract to many unsavory characters. I honestly believe that a countrywide public discussion needs to take place to address ways to alleviate this issue.
I agree, there has to be a more sensible answer than “opening the flood gates” I favour a more open approach to immigration, but Mac had some specific stipulations with his recommendations on immigration so that already differs from Calibishie warriors’s recommendations.
This has to be carefully done lest we create new and even greater problems.