At 5AM, the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 11.7 north, longitude 44.7 west or about 1100 miles east south east of Dominica.
Bret is moving quickly toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to pass through the central to northern Lesser Antilles towards the end of the week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become a hurricane in the next few days on its approach.
Estimated arrival of earliest tropical storm force winds is from Thursday morning.
Uncertainty in the track forecast of Bret makes it difficult to specify the exact location and magnitude of where hazards could occur. However, under the current situations, Bret poses a high threat to the island and it is likely that a tropical cyclone watch may be required within the next 24 hours.
POSSIBLE CONDITIONS:
- An increase in wind speeds from Thursday, gusting to tropical storm force and possibly to hurricane force overnight;
- An increase in showers and thunderstorm activity from overnight Thursday into Friday which could result in widespread flooding, (possibly 100 to 150 mm/ 4 to 6 inches of rainfall);
- Deterioration in seas conditions on the east coast on Thursday, with waves peaking to 4.0 m/ 12.0 ft.
POSSIBLE IMPACTS:
- Rivers, streams, gutters and ravines will likely overflow their banks and flood surrounding areas from overnight Thursday;
- Landslides and rock falls from overhanging cliffs;
- Loose objects can become missiles in gusty winds;
- Persons living near to the coast will be impacted.
Residents should continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bret and ensure that they have their hurricane season plans finalized and ready for activation to protect life, property and livelihood.
The Dominica Meteorological Service will continue to provide updates as they become available.
Please stay tuned to the local weather forecast or check our website for updates on the development of this system.
Just hoping that Bret will calm down and dissipate over open seas. We in these vulnerable islands are not in any economic shape to withstand any devastation or possible damage that may transpire.
Let us all hope and pray for the best and do everything possible to minimise injuries to our person, and damage to property, if we are seriously impacted by this pending storm.