The results of an election poll just released by Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) reveal that a larger percentage of those polled have committed to vote for the Dominica Labour Party (DLP) than for the rival United Workers Party (UWP). However, the polling organization has acknowledged that the outcome of the upcoming general election could be determined by the significant number of uncertain voters borne out by the poll.
The results of the CADRES poll, which was conducted during the month of October, 2019, was presented by the company’s Director, Peter Wickham, at the Garraway Hotel this morning.
A press release issued by CADRES at the presentation, states that 37% of respondents said that they were committed to voting for the DLP, while 30% expressed their commitment to vote for the UWP. 1% said “another party” which the pollsters are presuming “spoke to a political entity which did not materialize on nomination day.”
A total of 32% did not commit either way and, according to CADRES, this group is referred to as the “Uncertain” Vote and is clearly large enough to influence the outcome of the election in either way.
” Assumptions regarding the outcome of this election would naturally revolve around the voting behaviour of this “Uncertain” group which has admittedly conveyed some sense of their support by virtue of their Prime Ministerial preference,” Wickham states in his analysis.
He adds that CADRES has noted that this group generally splits along historic lines in the Caribbean and this tradition would also favour the incumbent.
When questioned by reporters at the CADRES presentation on Thursday, Wickham maintained that despite the decline of support for the Dominica Labour Party they “will win the December 6, 2019 general elections.”
He said he was not at liberty to divulge information about the winners at constituency level but insisted that the DLP will win a majority of seats but added that he would be “surprised if they win a landslide.”
“I am not seeing that happening but, then again, I have seen other things, for Labour Party they need to manage a slide but I have been surprised before so…,” he stated.
“The Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been on a downward trajectory since the last general election in 2014 and my expectations are that this will continue in this election,” Wickham continued. However, he says that the decline, if managed effectively, is not necessarily enough to cause the DLP to be removed from office.
“I have been seeing a couple of interesting phenomena…because within some specific constituencies (he did not name them when asked to) there have been movements that are interesting. I am not authorized to speak on constituency data but I think you can see a situation in the national level they are losing support but is able to impact on non-traditional seats,” Wickham said.
“We note, however, that some amount of caution needs to be observed on this occasion as voter lethargy appears to have increased since the last election. Therefore, our projection of a Labour victory could be negatively impacted IF Labour is not able to mobilise sufficiently on election day, or IF the UWP is better mobilised and able to capture the interest of these lethargic voters in the remaining weeks,” Wickham cautioned.
Wickham admitted that CADRES recently conducted a poll in 2019 but said he was not at liberty to speak about it.
“I am not here to speak of other polls but this one, conducted in October 2019, which is the most recent poll,” he said, pointing out that the polls conducted are the “property of the client” and the decision to share that information is that of the client.
Regarding the most recent poll, Wickham said, “It was commissioned by clients and we are not at liberty to disclose who the client is and who are the people that we polled.
He also revealed that electoral reform did not come up as an issue in the CADRES poll because the questions were “structured.”
“Electoral reform did not come up and suggests to me that it is not an issue which keeps people up at night. My sense from being in Dominica and I am aware of the recent issues, the machinations and the protest…and the fact that the opposition decided to contest the elections says that the issue of electoral reform can’t possibly be that pertinent to them otherwise they would not have contested the elections,” Wickham contends.
This so-called pollster paid by the one-man corrupt rogue regime prime mistake is trying his best to paint a picture for his master but failed! In a diplomatic and subtle way he’s letting us know that his one-man corrupt rogue regime prime mistake is losing the elections!!! Take Them Out (TTO)! Vote Dem Out!!!
But remember is how the votes are divided throughout the constituencies even the minority can win. Where is the breakdown?
Professional work will always be profession. The conclusion from Peter is that labour is no longer popular, no longer party of choice. The swinging voters gonna decide… Skerritt is in for a shock because Every arm of the country is coming at him.. The Civil servants are quiet right now but not on election day….
Labourite should have prevented skerritt from bringing the ministers with bad reputation n numerous allegation of misconduct back. Petit Savanne was another massive blunder. Next is His wife in the political ring…….. Bad moves by a tired n stressed out pm..
As I will always say he really started off well, but as is the case of many country men, n poor men, money, power, honor n fame messed up the Pm. He reminds me of a political leader who came from the country side n a leader for poor people but when he reach the city, big shots, mafia, bias, n greed n immoral folks had him never see the state house again..
Humpty dumpty Pm Skeeritt must fallllllll. It’s a must
December 6th 2019, every body voting Team Dominica- The United Workers Party, led by The Honourable Lennox Linton.
20 years under Skerrit Labour Party and we are still the kacarat in the Caribbean. No..that’s not good for us. We can do better and that is voting these corrupted government out.
Wickham has compromised his integrity. From his own data I can depict that infact DLP will lose the elections, even by ignoring the undecided voters. Why?
The DLP will likely win 7 seats namely Portsmouth, Cottage, Veille Case, Paix Bouche, Grandbay, Soufiere and Colihaut with 60%+ of the vote. Meaning vast majority of their support is isolated or concentrated in a few seats. With an only 8% lead (and noting he unprofessionally with held the margins of error which a conservative estimate would be 3-5%) in swing seats they have already lost their majority and trailing the UWP. Remember this is without including the undecided vote.
Adding that he withheld the margins of error, at 5% error, UWP COULD have the overall lead in his poll.
DNO if it is possible, could you inquire of Mr. Wickham if my comments are factual. Based on his own data i don’t see how he could assume DLP would win when we have a parliamentary system and not a direct presidential race.
DLP has been in government for 19 years… Skerrit promised a clean sweep of all 21 constituencies.
De uncertains represent a clear sign of loss of support for the ruling party in power.
If they wanted to be in de DLP train they would have been on board already and DLP wouldn’t have people running around last minute in neighborhood at night looking for votes and support
Mr. Wickam your presentation lacked substance.
But I will focus on what you said without saying it.
1: Since more details were not given, one can reasonably assume that the polling data does not favor the incumbent.
2: Mr. Wickam is making reference to an “Uncertain Group”. Logically speaking, for 20 years in office one would have seen the performance of the incumbent, if after 20 years one is still uncertain, well, it’s not now you will change your mind. It is clear your allegiance could not be with the DLP.
3: Mr. Wickam said that 37% favors the DLP… you do realize that’s slightly over 1/3 of the electorate? Simply put the DLP are very unpopular.
4: Notice the factors that influenced the last elections are not factors now… Skeritts… popularity… Youth… Policies … give the young man a chance… signs of failure as their key strategy in the past which was one man… Skeritt… can not be used as a winning strategy now.
Remember Mr. Wickam is an employee of the DLP therefore we don’t expect him to say other wise, and also remember he cannot afford to loose on his large payment, money that could be used in Dominica to help the people, as you see Mr. Wickam and Barbados are benefiting from all of Dominica’s funds no mater what and one have to ask “why”. Dominicans please stand up for your country.
Eagle Eyed is right every public meeting of the DLP,there are former suporters of the UWP taking the DLP stage.UWP supporters are turning to DLP by the 100’s.In MARIGOT,SALISBURY,ROSEAU CENTRAL and ROSEAU SOUTH,UWP is getting less votes than the did in 2014
As a laborite I must admit that this poll shows the election is much closer than I be ever thught. Not only that but it shows how divided we are and that’s not good for any of the two leaders. It is on that basis I am calling on the president to immediately suspend the election so we could have the reform that people are asking for. In the interest of all I call for an interim government to be put in place to unite the country and prepare for the election and I am also calling on my friend and fellow village PM Skerrit to resign because the poll shows that the people had enough of him
If those were the main points of the conference, why does this man call himself a pollster. I got nothing new from these comments labour has 37% and workers has 30 but results will vary based on voting behavior. WOW! I am so enlightened. Thank you captain OBVIOUS!
After reading this report from Mr Wickham, I now understand why PM Skerrit must be a very worried, disturbed and troubled man. This poll was conducted by a personal friend of Mr Skerrit who might be getting a monthly salary from the government. So one could understand why he would want to make pm feel very good. But to hear him give the DLP only 37% and UWP 30%? BOY that’s cause for worry. To make matters worse I am a known DLP supporter and I was polled and I made it clear to them that I voting for Skerrit and the DLP, though deep within I know I trying UWP next election. I know I am not the only one because that’s how we get the little cookout. So if with all that PM Wickham only gives People PN 37% support? That news to me is similar to when Nebuchadnezzar had that bad dream that really had him scared and disturbed boy. I think PM should start parking and pre prepare for a tuff future that awaits him. So PM my advise to you is that you set your house in order because trouble…
Years gone by the polls favored the Dlp by a greater margin…. Presently, the polls – however labour bias it may be- can’t even give labour a landslide victory…
Skeeritt has lost his way n credibility. Skerritt is the most mentally ill man in Dominica… He has single handedly, destroy Dominica n make the country the most corrupt in the world..
Skeritt has abused his power consistently, by doing whatever he wants with no consultation… Skerritt is non consultation in his ways… Honestly, he started well, serving the people but how power, money, pride n greed can mess up someone.. Skerritt is a man who lost his way.
Look now, he is spending billions on election n bridery.. More Corruption.
Skerritt has shown no regard for his constituents, he even went as far as not voting for himself but for wifey.
If one goes to viellecase the whole constituency is at sleep with nothing going on.. Only his friends having fun n building houses.
Honestly, Dominica is where it is,…
that`s why DLP is working overtime to increase overseas voters to insert tilt the numbers in their favour.
We need to be creative in plans to prevent this from happening; this can not be fixed after vote cased.
i can openly say that dominica has some of the most donse people in the world, i mean, wow wow wow, jut for a little hands out, these people will give up their souls, their rights, their children, nah man, this is bad, dominica, if these government was doing what they suppose to do, the hands out they giving you would be pocket change for what you would be making, having your own job,
List of Latin American and Caribbean countries by GDP (PPP)
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Latin American countries by GDP per capita PPP (2019).
This is a list of Latin American and Caribbean countries by gross domestic product at purchasing power parity in international dollars according to the International Monetary Fund’s estimates in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook database.
The Latin American countries Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina accounted for over two-thirds of the region’s total gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power…
We the selience voters who don’t attend the Sewo, never received cool out and no reassurance of salary increases will decide the result of the general election.
please be vocal in saying this to your fellow undecided’s. You NEED to vote. You MUST vote – either for something or against something…. please… this is important. YOUR vote SUPER-COUNTS!!! Go OUT and VOTE!
This poll reveals slot you know. Let’s put partisan politics aside and analislize the finding of Mr. Wickham. People, it is Mr Skerrit that has all the money to give to people, the houses and the materials to give, while Linton and the UWP have nothing! It is a fact that 100% of UWp supporters will vote uwp because they know they have nothing to lose. On the other hand many supporters of UWP are dressed in Red and shouting Labor because that’s what they must do to get money and favor. But come election day many of them will vote UWP and many laborites like myself, will vote UWP. I am a laborite, these days I wear nothing but red and at times I forcefully criticize the UWP in public so I could get what I want. The only place I criticize Skerrit is on this medium because no one sees me. However, come election 6 I and my household voting for change because we are not happy with where Skerrit has the country today. So if Mr. Wickham can only give Skerrit 37% and uwp 30% pm is in trouble
Wickham, shout it out loud and clear we voiting LABOUR AGIAN, 5 more years.
“The results of an election poll just released by Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) reveal that a larger percentage of those polled have committed to vote for the Dominica Labour Party (DLP) than for the rival United Workers Party”
So because these Bajans keep fooling Skerrit they feel all Dominicans are just foolish?
First of all, Mr. Wickham must understand that in Dominica NO government is elected on percentage basis. A government is elected on a basis of who wins eleven or more seats. If at the end of polling day Skerrit steals 37% of the votes and UWP wins 30%, then we will not have a government because 37% of the 21 seats would mean DLP would win 7 seats and UWP would win 6 seats which would ONLY account for 13 seats. So what about the other 8 seats Mr. Wickham? As a person on the ground I conclude that you are right that the DLP will steal 7 seats but UWP is on course to win 14 seats.
Quite intellectual: from your deduction, I now have a better understanding of how the system works in our case.
Wickham is simply doing what every other Barbadian yard-foul does; their main purpose is to feed from pit-hole feces as found in Dominica, as well as in Barbados too.
He is groveling in Roosevelt feces for his survival, having one of his best yard foul day!
Guy shut your stupid mouth!
Roosevelt pays you every five years to spread his propaganda, some people follow your brainwashing; believe you and keep voting for Roosevelt.
You are the kind which threatens the welfare of our people; in Dominica there are never a crowed of uncertain voters, except if you are talking about your hope Roosevelt will bribe and import people to vote for him.
Tell you what; the outcome for either party is already decided.
The more people Roosevelt bribe is the better his chances of wining; but you see; people have began to wake from their slumber, they are realizing: “give me a fish I’ll eat for one day; teach me to fish; I’ll fish forever!”
Roosevelt has taken away the will of the majority of people to fend for themselves; he killed every source of employment in the country; and replaced it with the sale of passports, the less fortunate, and people who take bribes will vote Roosevelt.
This might your last visit to our country!
@Francisco, you make me laugh with your crazy choice of words which is “you are the kind which threatens the welfare of our people,” may i asked whom are your people that is being threatened? Linton, Brian and your fellow so-called Workers clowns they are the ones whom you should have a word with instead of writing all sorts of nasty rubbish about our champion Dr Skerrit Pm. The best ever. Labour one love 😍
Roosevelt Skerrit is a damn t….; if you don’t know what I mean fill in the blanks!
By the way that damn t…. right at this moment is not the prime minister of Dominica or prime minister of anything.
The moment that vagabond, that corrupted crook that black ugly bald-head rat dissolved parliament, he ceased to be prime minister without a job!
The people who are running Dominica right now are all the parliament secretaries. Man Dog, I know you like corruption, you like people who thief things that are not their own; but I suggest you help keep prevent Roosevelt from winning his seat, thus saving Dominican’s lots of misery.
A vote against Roosevelt means freeing our nation from thievery, poverty, and victimization, of our people. Who are my people?
All Dominicans are my people, even ugly you and the damn bald-head corrupted crook Sir Knight Me Almost Nearly cousin Dr. Punjab Dusquesne Dr. HIFU Ali Baba Indian doctor of nothing that damn t…. Roosevelt Skerrit eh!…
@Francisco, I could not stop myself from laughing pantomime season is here this is the type of comedy production that I like keep the good work going I might booked you on Broadway theatre in London or Manhattan, New York City!!
@Man bites dogs, probably you have noticed that Telemaque goes into hiding from the news articles about the UWP.
I think that he is ashamed to tell the world that he supports those uncivilized, worthless, people; or he is afraid to tell them like it is; the way he does with PM Skerrit, and those who write about him
People like that are nothing more than cowards, with all his empty boasting, that is who this man is. Good Lord
I am not hiding you Roosevelt Skerrit girl!I am actually tracking down the $1.2 billion dollars a certain politician in Dominica thief oui!
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
I know the name of the certain feller who thief Dominica’s one billion two hundred million dollars eh; but I doh calling him name eh!
We will lock him up oui!
I am not ashamed to be on the side of the UWP which represents truth honest, transparency and progress.
The UWP members are not about stealing and corruption; when we talk about the word labor in Dominica it have a new definition; which means thievery of passports money.
It means a corrupted dictator thief $1.2 billion dollars from the treasury; and I hear you Elizabeth know who the the thief is by name.
Remember how many times I E-mail you and told you he is a damn thief and a liar!
Eh, eh, eh, eh!
Oh, what a liar and a thief he is!
Elizabeth,maybe he should sing for us
I’m not what I appear to be, or I’m a loser I lost someone who’s near to me, how about that it should put a hole in his button!!!
If one analyses the document well enough, you will realize:
1. that neither of the party has a sure win.
2. DLP is on a decline.
3. UWP is on an increase.
4. The DLP over the past months has not gained momentum to capture more votes.
NB: This election will be won by diasporan votes. With this said, the supporters of ” WE the People” must be ready to decline any elections results whether or not UWP OR Labour wins.
As a democracy, we need free and fair elections. PERIOD!!!!!!
Yup this is pure BS, the DLP need to stop bribing people that does not reside in Dominica to take a boat or a plane and go to Dominica just to vote for them, this is unfair to the Dominicans living on the island.. you all should decide your own fate.. these people do their dirt then turn around and run back to their so called easy life abroad whilst their brothers and sisters of their home land suffers.
Something needs to be down, because I actually know a few that will be doing just as I mentioned above this coming Dec.
“Uncertain voters” as in airplane loads of yours truly paid voters arriving at Melville Hall airport two days before the election camouflaged as people coming down for vacation and rum.
these results can’t sway me!
all of we Dominicans know this is not de first polll taken for the DLP and we in de public have been clueless regards de results…..now you coming 2 weeks before elections at de last hour to pump some adrenaline into your DLP followers?
my boy i am so happy that this may just be de last set of polls you will be doing for your massa Skerrit
“We note, however, that some amount of caution needs to be observed on this occasion as voter lethargy appears to have increased since the last election. Therefore, our projection of a Labour victory could be negatively impacted IF Labour is not able to mobilise sufficiently on election day, or IF the UWP is better mobilised and able to capture the interest of these lethargic voters in the remaining weeks,” Wickham cautioned.
Peter that is a cop-out because you known darn well the DLP is losing so you covering you behind reference credibility. By the way, in Dca the general popular votes does not elect a government but rather the constituencies. Please publish the results by constituencies and you will have more credibility. Just a thought
No, what he is saying is that if labour do not manage to bring in the bought voters from outside they will lose the election. So all that largesse Skerrit handed out at home, his investment, is not having much payback.
Real UWP is going to LOSE the election.The poll is saying more voters FAVOUR the LABOUR PARTY.UWP only chance is if the LABOUR PARTY supporters do not turn out to VOTE.
I read this article and I saw no favor for any party. The article was clear and precise. Why waste time bashing political by every chance necessary?
@Royal
My take exactly, although it had a bias to DLP who commissioned the poll!!
So just imagine how sharply DLP has declined, and the gains UWP has made!!
Skerrit
Whey is di money?
Whey is di money?
Whey is di money?
@% You Ibo, Viewsexpressed, Francisco, Zandoli, RandyX, and many more are all invited to the “WAKE” on the 7.12.2019 it will be held all over Dominica ha ha ha ha ha ha ha 🤣 who laughs last Labour, Labour, Labour.
What wake is that? Oh, you mean that wake where people all over Dominica are coming together to celebrate the death of the DLP?
However, I don’t think dogs will be welcome because no bones will be provided!
So this poll was conducted in October, the UWP decided to coopperate and contest the Dec 6th general election. I believe linton got information of this result and figured there’s hope after all. (###Lazylinton###)
Little do they know it’s the Genius Plan of the DLP to get the UWP to participate in the election process. Dr. Skerritt the Surgeon at work.
How comes so many polls being conducted and nobody talking to me? tell skrett we cannot and will not undergo another 5 years under hard labour.
Off course alu polls will favor DLP. Desperate much!
and Pawol fake poll favors the UWP.
So what did Alex Bruno do?
Who did his poll favor?
@cd
If you analyse it well, it does not even favour DLP.. I think UWP is in a powerful position to win, if the remaining days are used to further expose DLP!
Skerrit
Whey is di money?
Whey is di money?
Whey is di money,?
Just average the two polls presented and come back with the results. Will show that the UWP is ahead. Also, electoral reforms is needed.
Once Wickham and CADRES who used t
to paint lazy and incompetent Skerrit as a giant monolith, can come out in this uncertain manner about a DLP victory, I can conclusively state now that Labour is dead and buried!!
In the write-up there are still lies included to boost the standing of this DLP, Dominicas most corrupt government!
UWPites and Dominican patriots, let’s deliver the last knock up blow to this embattled DLP corrupt regime at the polls.
They are virtually gone!!
Skerrit
Whey is di money?
Whey is di money?
Whey is di money
Tight election, however is the people who will decide the outcome.
This election is in favor of the incumbent.Based on Cadres analysts the UWP will have to really bring out the vote in a massive way to win this election. UWP doesn’t have that type of political machinery to out do the Labour Party at that. I am not taking sides but there is a large voter apathy on the ground and this doesn’t augur well for the opposition. Voters should be in favor of change not lethargic about voting
Nothing tight about this election. Labor will hold it’s votes from last election and increase in other areas where UWP did well, so i predict a landslide win again for Labour. People in marginal constituencies where UWP did better than expected at the last election now realize that their vote for UWP were wasted, so we are likely to see a lot of these voters switching to the party which they think is most likely to win.
CADRES first and ONLY poll ever release after 18 consecutive months of running POLLS in Dominica for DLP..( ALAS)
This is not a good story for DLP , it seems that CADRES was forced to come forward with something which indicates the DLP has a chance at the POLLS.
SKERRIT YOU Finish TIME TO GO!!!!!!
Lol you UWP supporters are something else! Amazing!
You are right, UWP supporters are amazing.
If something is illogical, then yup we are something else
Wickham just admitted defeat to the DLP in a way to avoid disparaging them and himself. He left out constituency data, which is what the winner is decided upon. Plus if Skerrit were confident, give Dominica electoral reforms and win without a shadow of a doubt.
LMFAO. Is this a joke? Why do these organizations have to mess with the little credibility they have? You are working on behalf of the PM so you are basically creating a false impression and an excuse/room for the tonnes of voters who are supposedly coming in. Here why; 37 + 31 is 68%. You are telling me in your sample data 32 percent of people did not say either but you assumed they lean to ruling party. Basically 1/3 of those polled cannot give you a straight answer. That tells me 63% of the population dissatisfaction with the government and knows change is needed. The PM knows that that is why he is mobilizing dominicans from Timbuktu to come and vote and when he steals the election you guys will say that was the sway of undecided. Can you conduct exit polls on election day. Polling can be done to favour the one you working for which is what is above bout is always subject to various interpretations if conducted with right controls. These guys think all dominicans are fools!!
Labourites, let us get off our couches and go do the necessary work. Get the voters to go out and vote. Last time around, there was too much apathy. The election will only be won after the last ballot has been counted.
Stop the infighting over a sheet of galvanize, a door, a window, preferred candidate or a “cool out”. Your turn and must come under a Roosevelt Skerrit government.
@ So-called observant readass,so your intention and reason for voting the one-man corrupt rogue regime is for what one can and will receive,so it’s not about the good governance of the island
Based on what I read re the so-called poll, this man forced himself to give an edge to the one-man corrupt rogue regime, because he was paid! It looks more like a sympathy as he’s seen that the one-man corrupt rogue regime is losing! This is not an honest poll! Hence the reason for bringing in illegal voters and all the other illegitimate registration of people!!!
Kalinago justice, you need to take a chill-pill. You, %, Francisco etc. have the tendency to jump on the back of anyone with a different opinion to yours. that’s typical of you UWP supporters. DNO is a platform for everybody willing to contribute to a discussion to do so freely. So wind your neck in and let people express their selves freely. Chill man! Chill!
If the Labour Party had another leader, maybe there would have been another chance.
But with Skerrit, we can’t take it no more.
Labourites don’t listen to hand out harry. You need independence and work by your own means, no longer depending on a government to take you anywhere based on the level of support. Nothing’s more powerful than independent people, United Workers Party Team Dominica is here to achieve just that.
Workers dig deeper to influence those undecided voters. Less energy on changing what you cannot and more on those things you can.
Planned effective strategies are needed!
This tells me that 63% of voters are not committed to DLP. That is interesting because the poll also says that 30% are committed to UWP so that leaves 37% who do not want to say whom they will vote for and I suspect that in the present climate many of those do not want to speak out for fear of retaliation should by chance Skerrit’s party win again. I know my people and that is more ominous for Skerrit than Linton.