On August 9, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Full Report, Summary for Policymakers (SPM) and the Technical Summary.
This Working Group I report is the first instalment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) — series of global assessments of climate change and its impacts—which will be completed in 2022. It covers the latest scientific knowledge, painting a stark picture of climate change to date and what is to come.
A team of global science experts drafted the SPM of the Working Group I contribution to AR6. Among these experts was Professor Tannecia Stephenson, from the Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) at The UWI, Mona; the only Caribbean small island scientist in the team.
So far, the scientific report reflects significant implications for the region, with UWI climate scientists raising a clarion call in the Caribbean for greater attention to be given to the report.
“The science could not be any clearer. The present and future threat posed by climate change is even greater than we imagined. We no longer have the luxury of delaying or deferring action. The Caribbean must act now to enable a secure tomorrow,” according to Professor Michael Taylor, Dean of the Faculty of Science and Technology and Professor with specialisation in Environmental Physics, Caribbean Climate Variability, Climatology, Climate Change, who leads the Climate Studies Group at Mona.
A consortium member of The UWI’s Global Institute of Climate Smart and Resilient Development (GICSRD), the Climate Studies Group, Mona harnesses UWI expertise in climate change, resilience, sustainable development and disaster risk reduction across all UWI campuses.
Compiled by CSGM, here are 10 urgent takeaways for the Caribbean from the new global report.
| 10 Urgent Takeaways | What the IPCC Report says | Why the Caribbean needs to pay attention
|
| 1. Global warming has not slowed. | Global surface temperature was 1.1 °C higher in 2011–2020 than 1850–1900, with larger increases over land than over the ocean.
| The Caribbean rallied around the slogan “1.5 to stay alive”. The region argued that life in the Caribbean will teeter on the edge of viability if global temperatures reach 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial periods. We have now seen 1.1 of the 1.5 degrees. The pace of warming is outstripping the pace of the region’s response! |
| 2. The world will exceed 1.5 degrees (above pre-industrial levels) sometime between now and 2040. | Global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C above 1850-1900 levels in the next 20 years.
| The Caribbean lobbied that the globe should not see 1.5 degrees of global warming (over pre-industrial levels) before the end of the current century. At the current pace of warming and without drastic global action we will see 1.5 degrees before 2040. Some individual years before will likely hit 1.5 degrees before then. If there ever was a time to step up the global campaign for 1.5 degrees it is now! |
| 3. We can still limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees but only if global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced drastically. | Limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative carbon dioxide emissions, reaching at least net-zero carbon dioxide emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions.
| The Caribbean must collectively lobby for greater global greenhouse gas reductions by the whole world at the upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP26). Net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century can limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees within this century. It will not be easy and will require everybody to play their part. This means the Caribbean must also reduce its own emissions through greater use of renewable energy, preservation of blue and green forests, and reducing emissions from waste and transportation. |
| 4. We are more certain now that some extreme weather phenomena being presently seen are due to global warming. | Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence, has strengthened since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
| We use to say that we cannot take one extreme event and attribute it to climate change. The balance of attribution science has however shifted such that we can now say with greater certainty that climate change is making our weather worse. It is affecting the intensity of heatwaves, droughts, floods and hurricanes, all of which are impacting the Caribbean. We must be prepared for even more extreme weather in the near future. |
| 5. Heat extremes are part of the new normal globally including small islands, and will only get worse even if we manage to limit global warming. | Small Islands, including the Caribbean, have seen warming that can be attributed to human influence. As warming continues more frequent and intense heat extremes and heat stress will be observed. | The intensity and frequency of heat extremes in the Caribbean are increasing and will only continue to do so. In the Caribbean, this impacts energy usage, water demands, agricultural productivity, health, and thermal comfort, among other things. We take being hot for granted, but we now have to plan for more hot extremes, more of the time. |
| 6. Rainfall during the summer months in the Caribbean i.e. when we expect rain, is decreasing and will continue to do so. | Caribbean rainfall for June–July–August has likely declined since the 1950s and will continue to decline. There is limited evidence and low agreement on the cause of the drying trend already observed.
| The evidence is clear now that water availability will continue to be one of the most significant challenges for the Caribbean under climate change. Major decisions, plans and projects need to be made, conceptualised, and implemented to enable a water-secure Caribbean future. The impact of inconsistent and variable water supply will be widespread and affect all areas of Caribbean life. Significant water projects are needed. |
| 7. Sea levels continue to rise at increasing and alarming rates. | Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 m between 1901 and 2018 and increasing rates have been noted since 1971. Sea levels will continue to rise in Small Island regions including the Caribbean and will result in increased coastal flooding. | With nowhere to retreat to and primarily for coastal cities, towns and major infrastructure, sea level rise is already a concern for the Caribbean and will continue to be so beyond the current century, even with efforts to limit global warming. Sea level rise together with storm surges and waves, especially from more intense hurricanes, will worsen coastal inundation and the potential for aquifers to be impacted by increased saltwater intrusion. Sea level rise will also cause shorelines to retreat for most Small Islands. Protecting coastal assets using hard and soft measures must be a priority in development planning. |
| 8. It’s not just land areas that are impacted, it’s also our oceans! | Globally there has been an increase in ocean acidification and in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves in some areas of the Atlantic. Marine heatwaves and ocean acidification will increase further with 1.5°C of global warming and with larger increases at 2°C and higher.
| The Caribbean is increasingly looking to the ocean and the blue economy for future economic development. The Caribbean waters and its biodiversity currently support many livelihoods, including fisheries, and tourism; is important for recreation; has potential for renewable energy generation; provides protection against storms; and are part of the allure of the Caribbean. But the marine environment is already under threat due to global warming, and that threat will only increase. Global warming is directly challenging the developmental potential of the blue economy. What is the Caribbean doing to ensure it is still a viable development option? |
| 9. We must brace for it! Regions like the Caribbean will experience multiple threats due to climate change. | With further global warming, every region is projected to increasingly experience concurrent and multiple changes in climatic impact-drivers. Changes in several climatic impact-drivers would be more widespread at 2°C compared to 1.5°C global warming and even more widespread and/or pronounced for higher warming levels. For example, at 2°C global warming and above, the Caribbean is projected to experience an increase in frequency and/or severity of agricultural and ecological droughts. | It will not be one climate threat or the other. It will be concurrent multiple threats. Hot and dry conditions will have significant implications for the agriculture and water sectors; more intense hurricanes and sea level rise will severely impact infrastructure and coastal living; while ocean acidification and marine heatwaves will impact coastal livelihoods. Can the Caribbean say that regional planning for climate change factors in the complexity that compound events will bring? |
| 10. How bad it becomes depends on how bad we let it become! | With every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes continue to become larger.
| The world, and the Caribbean, have a say in how bad climate change eventually becomes and also how bad the impacts will eventually be. The Caribbean has to intensify efforts to get limits on global warming. But even then the world has already committed itself to some level of increase and impact. This means adaptation planning takes on even greater importance for the Caribbean as well as issues such as ‘loss and damage’. Does the region have collective positions on mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage? Is it making that position known to the world and its own citizens? Is everybody aware of what they can do? The stark message to the region is that everybody has to be part of the solution! |
END
Note to the Editor
Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Full Report, Summary for Policymakers (SPM) and the Technical Summary can be accessed at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
About The UWI
The UWI has been and continues to be a pivotal force in every aspect of Caribbean development; residing at the centre of all efforts to improve the well-being of people across the region.
From a university college of London in Jamaica with 33 medical students in 1948, The UWI is today an internationally respected, global university with near 50,000 students and five campuses: Mona in Jamaica, St. Augustine in Trinidad and Tobago, Cave Hill in Barbados, Five Islands in Antigua and Barbuda and its Open Campus, and 10 global centres in partnership with universities in North America, Latin America, Asia, Africa and Europe.
The UWI offers over 800 certificate, diploma, undergraduate and postgraduate degree options in Culture, Creative and Performing Arts, Food and Agriculture, Engineering, Humanities and Education, Law, Medical Sciences, Science and Technology, Social Sciences, and Sport. As the Caribbean’s leading university, it possesses the largest pool of Caribbean intellect and expertise committed to confronting the critical issues of our region and wider world.
Ranked among the top universities in the world, by the most reputable ranking agency, Times Higher Education, The UWI is the only Caribbean-based university to make the prestigious lists. In 2020, it earned ‘Triple 1st’ rankings—topping the Caribbean; and in the top in the tables for Latin America and the Caribbean, and global Golden Age universities (between 50 and 80 years old). The UWI is also featured among the top universities on THE’s Impact Rankings for its response to the world’s biggest concerns, outlined in the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including Good Health and Wellbeing; Gender Equality and Climate Action.
For more, visit www.uwi.edu.
(Please note that the proper name of the university is The University of the West Indies, inclusive of the “The”, hence The UWI.)
I do believe that climate change is real. Because I feel cooler at nights than in the day.
They don’t practice what they preach.
For example, Al Gore predicted in 2006.In 10yrs, the east coastline will be eaten up because of Global Warming.Oh, sorry,there is a change “Climate Change”
Yet he bought a mansion worth millions of dollars on the same seaside
In 2016 he was on Chris Wallace program “Fox News Sunday” and was asked about his prediction. His answer was
“I saw fishes swimming in the streets of Miami.”
John Kerry crying about air pollution and global warming,yet he travels to Martha’s Vineyard on his private jet.
Another hypocrite Obama, he laments about the sea coast disappearing yet bought a mansion for $12 million on the same area on Martha’s Vineyard. Just two weekends ago he had a massive 60th birthday party, no social distancing,no mask. But people like him will call others dirty names, if you don’t do what they say.
This morning on QFM news Arthie Martin said between 10 – 12yrs earth is no more. The Democrats told us 3yrs ago just 12 more yrs
The climate have been changing.The first major hurricane I can remember was hurricane Delia, I believe was in 1963. Many years later, David in 1979 and not many years ago, we experienced Maria. Maybe, the next 10 or 15yrs no massive hurricanes.This is climate changing.
We have a nonstop disaster at present. Howbeit, it will soon pass. Hello scientists! Trying to play God? You all are plagiarizing the Bible and what was said thousands of years ago. You all call the phenomenon, “Global Warming”. Bible calls it “man’s last warning.” It’s predicted and prophesied in scripture, that the “Sun will be heated several times hotter.” Didn’t you all read it? Well, it’s in the Bible. Again, what happened to the topics on the “Ozone Layer”? And greenhouse gases? The scientists are on the second floor in their construction of their Tower of Babel. God’s word will stand, whether He is included in the human topic or not. Whether He is acknowledged by man or not. What’s coming on the earth, (according to scriptures of the Bible) will be so disastrous without comparison to previous disasters, nor will there be anything quite like it. So the scientists have not yet scratched the surface as it relates to God’s judgment on the planet; not just the Caribbean regions.
Youre saying a bunch of nothing .
The hole in the ozone layer opens and closes in a cyclical pattern, Depending on meteorological conditions. The hole can close up within months ( as it did last year) or become larger due to chemicals eroding away the ozone gas .
The science is easily attainable & digestible for those who seek to understand it. Stop dropping everything on god and a book that was written by 1 man , thousands of years ago; where human beings had little to no information on how and why things worked… and do your research before you speak so you don’t sound dotish .
God only helps those who help themselves.
The Caribbean is under more threat from this batch of leaders that are in place in the different islands than from this so called climate threat. For example, Dominica continues to be lashed simultaneously by Category 21 Hurricane Labour & Category 17 Hurricane Skerrit.
Youre ignit!.
Realize when its time to remove politics from your opinion!
Climate change is REAL . Dominica is baring the brunt of it and it will take all world leaders to impose restrictions / progressive planning to even attempt to reverse the harm done to the planet . The country will continue to flood and take beatings under multiple large hurricanes per year. but stay there like a dotish and fight over men that not thinking about you.
@PRO – Ofcourse climate change is real. Duh. The earth’s climate has always been changing from time immemorial. Climate change is nothing new.
Some of y’all does just repeat phrases without thinking what they mean. When was the earth’s climate ever stuck in one state?
Wait nah, you think these politicians and their vacuous ideas can stop this complex thing called earth’s climate from continuing to change?
This climate change argument you see these people talking about is a well-orchestrated Trojan Horse being used by ‘covert forces’ to subtly introduce global control measures on human behaviour and activities.
Pro
Where did you get this one.
“God only help those who help themselves.”
I am sure you did not get this from The Book that was written by one man.According to you.
This one man book (according to you) is more up-to-date than DNO and the sources that informs you.
This irrelevant book-The Bible,wrote about people with this thinking. And here it is.
Psalm 14:1and again the same book 53:1
“The fool has said in his heart There is no God”
You would do well to put your trust in this same God you are making fun of.
The Savior is waiting to save you, don’t delay.