The streamlining of intervention to the most vulnerable is among measures the government of Dominica is to undertake to manage its debt-to-GDP ratio following a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
A team from the IMF, led by Joana Pereira, visited Dominica on March 20 to 31 and held discussions on the 2023 Article IV Consultation with Dominica’s authorities. In its concluding statement, the team said the economic outlook for Dominica is positive with growth expected to stay above 4.5 percent in 2023-24, as tourism returns to pre-COVID levels, and the construction of the new international airport, and geothermal power plant takes hold.
Finance Minister, Dr Irving McIntyre, said the prediction by the IMF “is good for us” but the island must manage its debt-to-GDP ratio.
“Obviously what we have to do is to manage our debt-to-GDP ratio [for] which we have put many things in place,” he said.
He pointed out that this is being done to make the system more efficient so that Dominica “[doesn’t] bleed out” finances unnecessarily.
The debt-to-GDP ratio, commonly used in economics, is the ratio of a country’s debt to its gross domestic product (GDP). Expressed as a percentage, the ratio is used to gauge a country’s ability to repay its debt. In other words, the debt-to-GDP ratio compares a country’s public debt to its annual economic output. A high debt-to-GDP ratio is undesirable for a country, as a higher ratio indicates a higher risk of default.
At the end of 2022, Dominica’s total public sector debt-to-GDP-ratio was 104.3%, according to the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB). (See screenshot of ECCB figures below).
According to Dr McIntyre, one of the measures being taken to manage the island’s debt-to-GDP ratio is streamlining the government’s intervention “to really target the most vulnerable but at the same time, not moving away from the policies that comfort the common man, whether in terms of education, whether in terms of housing and all these different things and our social networks.”
“We are not going to give up on these, we put the people of this country first but obviously it will be streamlined, so there won’t be double dipping,” he stated.
In its report, the IMF did tell the government that it is essential to strengthen its social protection system.
“While conventional income-based targeting is hampered by widespread informality and capacity constraints, the government could pursue avenues for proxy-targeting, tailoring social assistance to vulnerable households in a systematized way,” the Washington DC-based organization said in its report. “This would enable the streamlining of untargeted programs and deploying exceptional support swiftly and cost-effectively in the face of large shocks. As a first step, completing the ongoing population census, which would form the basis for a comprehensive social registry, is paramount.”
This government has placed great emphasis on its social and public support programs and those who question it are usually derided. For example in 2013, then opposition leader, Lennox Linton was widely condemned when he said, “The government is pursuing an agenda with social programs which ends up benefiting greedy people more than it benefits needy people.”
Despite the growth prediction, the IMF warned that downside risks remain, including global economic uncertainty, climate change, and the volatility of Citizenship by Investment (CBI) revenue.
Dominica depends heavily on its CBI program for cash. As a matter of fact, while delivering the 2022/2023 national budget in July 2022, then Finance Minister, Roosevelt Skerrit that said during the fiscal year, non-tax revenue was estimated at $513.8 million or 57.3 per cent of the total recurrent revenue, which was predominantly receipts from the CBI Programme.
The IMF warned that a shortage of inflows from that program could cause problems.
“Shortfalls in CBI inflows could hamper implementation of infrastructure investment plans, climate resilience, economic activity, and the fiscal position,” the report stated.
How many millions are going to Haiti monthly? Is those money coming back to Dominica? My Haitian friend say, “No Way!” They are bleeding us like Mosquitoes.
Mr. used to have his photo with a calm, quiet and innocent face. Now he is the “Minister or our money,” you see how his face is now Bully? Ok my people, bark and make all the noise possible, but nothing will prevent these rulers from carrying on like they own the country. So man should just have to be ready and prepared for the inevitable eventualities down the road. Because there’s going to be some serious times ahead.
No politics please, student research in progress:
An entire article about managing Dominica’s debt-to-GDP ratio and no mention of what is Dominica’s current debt-to-GDP ratio?
DNO can you kindly ask the Honourable Minister of Finance Dr Irving McIntyre what is Dominica’s debt-to-GDP ratio presently, please?
It is all well and good to hear that the economic outlook for Dominica is positive with growth expected to stay above 4.5 percent in 2023-24! However, if our debt and ability to service our debty is rising faster than our GDP, then that would be wiped out. Which is why it is important to know our present debt-to-GDP ratio?
ADMIN: The article has been updated with the information as well as a link to where you can get the report.
Thank you DNO ADMIN, welldone:
“At the end of 2022, Dominica’s total public sector debt-to-GDP-ratio was 104.3%, according to the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB). (See screenshot of ECCB figures below).”
Boy, a positive growth forecast by the IMF and the nay-sayers poopooing all over it. I can only imagine what they would say if it was a negative forecast given by the IMF.
YOU haven’t got an idea what you are talking about! I guess you just wanted to add a bit more propaganda to your political friends nonsense.
Opinion are not facts.Dominica has a a population of approximately 73,000 with more than 38,501 registered vehicles.In 2021 Dominica’s minimum wage was increased by,and in some cases 100%.Before Skerrit there was no Clear Harbour which now employs more than 1,200.There was no NEP,which now employs more than 4,300 in various fields.Between 1995 and 2000 UWP imposed the hospital user fee on Dominicans,and the population dropped from 69,000 in 1995 to 68,000 in 2000.Skerrit removed the hospital user fee.Before Skerrit there was no Yes We Care with about 300 employed.There are now 2,700 senior citizens receiving $300 monthly,there was no such thing under UWP.Skerrit built $250,000 $300,000 and $400,000 houses and apartments from the CBI,which were given to more than 5,000 Dominicans free.Hundreds of millions of dollars vanished from the UWP’s Reengineered Citizenship programme.They raped DSS of $33,000,000 and gave them land in Warner in exchange.Dominicans will never forget CORRUPT UWP
uh…whats that the entire purpose for the funds? to give to the most volnerable anyway? what happened someone from the IMF came down and had to tell you guys it is not for you and your friends? but for the people who are most impacted? Saying you have to streamline funds implies that there was a lot of unnecessary bureaucracy in place to make it difficult for the average people to access the funds. so now you have to simplify the process to ensure that it actually gets in the hands of some of the most affected. i say some because we know how their selection process works.
DNO…..you really need to do better with your reporting. You went ad nauseam to describe debt to GDP ratio. Unless I missed it, you failed to report what that number is.
You should have reported the total debt and the ratio. Give us a more complete picture….please.
ADMIN: Thank you for keeping us accountable and for being so reasonable about it.
We acknowledge your point and have updated the article with the relevant information.
Thanks DNO……much appreciated.
I would have expected the ratio to climb during the covid period (a near dead tourism sector, spending on social activities down, no real manufacturing to speak about). I am surprised the number was stable at the end of 2021.
I am also curious to know what accounted for the massive increase between 2019 and 2020.
Dominica will be the next Haiti.
The predicted growth of 4.5% is predicated entirely upon the construction of the international airport, (if it happens), a project in which most of the employees will not be Dominicans. This will greatly stymie the circulation of money in the national economy, and Dominicans will still catch their tail, because the multiplier effect will be almost nonexistant.
Mcintyre man you are one huge disappointment. I wonder if you even understand the IMF jargon. If you loved Dominica, you would have been on this regime’s back to do better. Tourism is not even back to pre covid levels, agriculture is contributing almost nothing to the economy, what is a man like you doing in a government that has caused us to be depending entirely on passport sales…But its birds of a feather flocking together.
4.5% jobless growth is tantamount to no growth. In other words the growth of 4.5% is just on the books, but it wont be felt by the poor man.
WICKEDS!
After all that these people do to other economies in terms of depressing them allyou still want to come and have them assess that which is non sustainable???
How can they identify CBI as a Gross Domestic Product when the ones whom share the profits are a minute percentile of the populous!!!
Compared to the US how can they praise that which is determined by a fraudulent scheme to Identify GDP as it relates to Dominica’s economic future,,,
What need to be identified is what percentage of furnished goods are being imported in relation to what Dominica can produce to be exported, and what raw materials can be imported to be refined into furnished goods,,,
DNO how comes allyou didn’t put a PDF link here so we can see the report nuh!!!
And why allyou not asking the real questions of “what are the raw materials Dominica can produce to be marketable as a sustainable GDP!!!
ADMIN: The link to report has been added to the article.
Dominica has two gigantic problems which results in all of the others including the one which we are discussing now. These two issues are a result of bad governance and they are the poor management of the country’s resources and the lack of equity practiced in every sector in our country. Too many inefficient party supporters in major roles which are necessary to drive the economy. Please please see the light. Give your people the jobs that they are capable of doing and employ trained personnel for critical roles. We can’t allow the country to sink further because of pettiness.
Dominicans rise up before it’s too late.
We need to fo the Country Poverty Assessment, the last one was done about 14 years ago. This will show us how we are doing.
The IMF statement is not a fact. It is just a prediction or speculation. We would all like to witness the economic growth to rise so high that every Dominican will benefit. A rising tide lifts all boats.
What has this perennially slothful administration done to increase economic growth? Has it expanded the private section? Has it produce or manufacture more goods for export? Has it found oil like Guyana?
Show me what Roosevelt and his parasites are doing to bolster the economy for Dr. Irving McIntyre ( Finance Minister) to have an orgasmic reaction to the guesswork made by the IMF.
This tax and spend maladministration is among the ten most indebted countries worldwide. It will take generations of austerity measures to bring it down to acceptable levels.
Dominicans will only get relief when Roosevelt and his rotten, corrupt eggs are eradicated from the political landscape of Dominica.
Something is terribly wrong with you, why is it that any report that
says anything positive about the Country or Government you never seem to acknowledge, why. Your obsessive political partisan beliefs is a mental behavior which you seem to not accept or acknowledge. I’m not against you, for not supporting the Government, but there is something called reason, you totally ignore such thing, plus the language you use to describe people on this forum, it is obnoxious and does not achieve anything nor does it contribute to the agenda you’re part of. How long are you going to sustain such behavior.
Gary you have used many unflattering and derogatory language to describe critics of your deity, Lying Roosevelt. You sanctimonious, pretentious, notorious charlatan.
Do you know how silly you are assigning a deity to me, in the name of The PM lol, your grammar and use of words are meaningless, it does not describe me. Do you know what derogatory language is, with which you are accusing me of, you are such a proficient person of
accusing people of doing things which you are guilty off doing, so long, lol.
@Gary
Just that you are guilty of the same, or even worse, because you support corruption in all ways, manner or form. That makes your comment null and void.
Right on, right on. You see hypocrites.
“According to Dr McIntyre, one of the measures being taken to manage the island’s debt-to-GDP ratio is streamlining the government’s intervention “to really target the most vulnerable. But at the same time, not moving away from the policies that comfort the common man, whether in terms of education, whether in terms of housing and all these different things and our social networks,” he stated.”
When read this i just had to laugh. This guy must think all his listeners are ignorant and just dance to a tune. I bet this gentleman is a fine doctor but that statement tells me these folks have no clue what they are doing. (I am working on diplomacy cause my brain is saying something else. Sir what you state above is additional debt. Private sector growth increase manufacturing production, export, value added activities, less begging and decrease gov spending will help debt to GDP. The debt you speak of is from gov socialism in a poor State.
What a joke / one doomsday scenario standing out! With a decreasing population of less than 70,000, unemployment rate rife, private sector in the doldrums, middle class non-existence, inequality of opportunity and income redistribution, and high infant mortality rates indicative of unmet human health needs in sanitation, medical care, nutrition, and education (among others), sadly ALL augurs badly/ill for Dominica’s future situation.