The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday released its forecast for the upcoming Hurricane Season and it is not looking good.
According to the organization, this year is going to be an “above average” hurricane season with 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
This is a far cry from an “average season” which has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
“Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” NOAA Administrator, Dr. Rick Spinrad, said.
He explained that there is a variety of factors that will influence this year’s hurricane season. Among them are near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean (evidenced by the scorching heat of recent times), the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. Spinrad pointed out that these factors tend to favor tropical storm formation.
Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, further explained the situation. He stated that lots of warm ocean water and minimal wind shear are fuel for hurricanes, adding that this year, all the right elements are “coming together.”
“We’ve seen a lot of seasons where you have a lot of warm (ocean) temperatures but a situation where there’s too much (wind) shear, but you look at this forecast, it’s all coming together,” Graham said at a press conference on Thursday morning. “…You have all the energy in the ocean, an active African monsoon, so check, check. Don’t expect a whole lot
of shear, check. So you really look at all the different patterns and they all come together to make this big forecast.”
In spite of the grim prediction, Graham said there should be no need to be alarmed, and preparation is key.
“That’s the highest forecast that we’ve had,” he stated. “There’s reason to be concerned but not alarmed. Yes, it’s the highest number, but it’s about being ready, right? So now’s the time to be prepared.”
In 2023, NOAA predicted 14 to 21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes. In the end, there were 20 named storms, seven of which became hurricanes and three that reached major hurricane strength. 2023 was the fourth-most active hurricane season on record.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.
Waiting for a report from UWP director of hurricane Thompson Fontaine.